902
FXHW60 PHFO 101319
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
319 AM HST Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable trade winds will be breezy to windy through early next
week, delivering brief showers mainly to windward areas. In the
short term, trade showers are expected to be fewer than normal,
with increased shower coverage possible later in the week as a
trough aloft moves over the area from the east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains in good agreement and shows the locally strong
and gusty trades lingering into early next week as the surface
ridge remains strong to the north. Despite the mostly dry,
seasonable trade wind pattern in place, expect periods with brief
showers passing through, primarily favoring windward and mauka
areas. Early morning satellite imagery and data showed some
low-level moisture moving in from the east, which supports the
windward shower coverage this morning. Some of these showers could
briefly reach the dry leeward areas of the smaller islands
through the early morning hours. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions
are anticipated through Thursday.

A weak mid- to upper-level trough approaching from the east will
move through late Thursday through Friday. A cool pocket aloft
associated with this upper feature, combined with the gusty
trades, could lead to a period of enhanced windward and mauka
shower coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy to locally windy trades will continue for the next couple
of days. Low cigs and SHRA will favor windward and mauka areas.
Expect mainly VFR with brief MVFR conds under passing SHRA.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward Molokai,
Maui and the Big Island.

AIRMET Tango for mtn lee turb will remain in effect for the next
couple of days.

&&

.MARINE...
As the weak low far north of the state weakens and moves away from
the state, high pressure will strengthen and will result in the
trade winds strengthening during the next 24 hours. Trade winds
should strengthen this afternoon with near gales expected for
some of the windier channels around Maui County and the Big
Island. With the trade winds expected to strengthen throughout the
day today, the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been expanded to
cover all Hawaiian Waters through Thursday. The trade winds will
continue to remain strong through most of the weekend and the SCA
should be extended beyond Thursday.

The current small south-southwest swell should slowly decline
today and fade out on Thursday. Another small pulse from the
south-southwest is possible late Thursday into Friday. A storm-
force low passed east of New Zealand this past weekend into
Monday. Seas in excess of 40 feet was seen on the altimeter pass
early yesterday morning, but by then the winds were aimed east of
Hawaii. Nonetheless, we should see a decent run of south-southwest
swells this weekend through the first half of next week. Surf
heights will likely reach the advisory threshold of 10 feet along
south facing shores during its peak Sunday into Monday then
gradually decline through the first half of next week.

Choppy surf along east facing shores will steadily increase
during the middle to second half of the week in response to the
building trade winds locally and upstream of the state. Surf along
north facing shores will remain minimal with select exposures
catching some windswell wrap.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian
waters-

&&
$$

DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Kino