928
FXHW60 PHFO 101955
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
955 AM HST Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will be breezy to windy into next week, delivering brief
showers that will focus windward and mauka.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy to windy trades will prevail into next week, supported by a
persistent surface ridge far N of the islands. The trade winds will
deliver brief showers, mainly to windward areas, while most leeward
areas will remain dry. The Kona slopes will receive their typical
afternoon and evening clouds and showers.

The gradient aloft between a westward-moving mid-level trough E of
the area and a mid-level ridge to the N is bringing strong NE-E
winds to the Big Island Summits, where a Wind Advisory remains
posted. Summit winds will diminish by Thursday night as the
weakening trough nears the islands. The trough may weaken the
persistent and strong subsidence inversion, and combined with the
gusty trades, could lead to a period of enhanced windward shower
coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy to locally windy trades will continue for the next couple
of days, with passing showers favoring favor windward and mauka
areas. Expect mainly VFR with brief MVFR conditions in showers/low
clouds.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration for
windward Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. Conditions are expected
to improve later this morning into early afternoon.

AIRMET Tango for low-level mechanical turbulence will remain in
effect for the next couple of days due to the breezy trades.

&&

.MARINE...
Broad surface high pressure generally paralleling 40N will persist
through the remainder of the week. This will create a tight enough
pressure gradient across the local waters to maintain moderate to
locally fresh trade winds. Trades may reach gale force in gust
this afternoon around the notoriously windier bays and channels
surrounding Maui County and Big Island. The anticipation of more
widespread strengthened trades has expanded the Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) to cover all Hawaiian Waters through Thursday. The
SCA should remain in effect the next several days as trades are
expected to remain fresh to locally strong through the weekend.

A series of small, medium period south southwest swells will
slowly decline through today but reinforcing similar swells will
arrive through Friday afternoon. A storm force low that produced
very high seas east of New Zealand earlier in the week will be the
impetus to the next mentionable small, long period south southwest
swell scheduled to arrive this weekend. This swell may push surf
heights to near High Surf Advisory levels along south-facing shores
during its peak Sunday into Monday. East-facing shore choppy wind
waves will steadily increase through the latter half of the week
in direct response to strengthening local and upstream trades.
Surf along north-facing shores will remain very small in line with
the season but some select exposures may catch some wind wave
swell wrap.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian
waters.

&&
$$

DISCUSSION...Birchard
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Blood