670
FXHW60 PHFO 111303
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
303 AM HST Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong trade winds will persist into early next week, bringing
brief showers to windward and mauka areas. There`s a potential
for increased windward shower coverage tonight through Friday due
to an approaching weak upper disturbance from the east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The surface ridge is expected to strengthen gradually over the
next few days, typically strengthening the trade winds locally.
However, an approaching mid- to upper-level trough could
temporarily weaken these winds later today through Friday. Prior
to this, there remains the possibility of a short-fused wind
advisory for lower elevations in the typical windier locations
of Maui County and the Big Island through the day. Strong
northeast winds at the Big Island Summits are holding early this
morning due to a tight pressure gradient aloft, but have begun to
trend down. That trend will should continue as the upper trough
moves through. This trough could also weaken the strong subsidence
inversion, potentially increasing windward shower activity
tonight through Friday, with some showers reaching the dry leeward
areas of the smaller islands.

Guidance suggests seasonable trade wind conditions continuing
this weekend through early next week, with the ridge remaining
strong to the north. The strong trades could ease slightly later
next week as the ridge weakens. Showers will favor the typical
windward areas, with minimal accumulations expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Windy trade winds will continue for the next couple of days, with
passing showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Expect mainly
VFR, with brief MVFR in showers/low clouds.

AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration remains in effect for
most windward areas.

AIRMET Tango for low-level mountain lee turbulence will remain in
effect for the next several days due to the strong trades. May
also need AIRMET Tango for strong surface winds greater than 30 kt
this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong- to near gale-force east to northeast trades with seas up
to the 10 ft advisory level will continue through early next week
as the ridge holds strong to the north. The strong trades could
ease slightly later next week as the ridge weakens.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through early next
week due to the strong trades locally and upstream of the state. A
downward trend is possible next week as the upstream fetch weakens
and the local trades begin to ease around midweek.

Surf along south facing shores will remain up as overlapping
south-southwest swells move through. After a brief down trend
today, a fresh south-southwest pulse arriving Friday will result
in an upward trend going into the weekend. A more significant
south swell will gradually fill in late Saturday night into
Sunday, then likely reach the advisory level late Sunday through
Monday. A gradual downward trend is expected Tuesday through
midweek.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for all Hawaiian
waters-

&&
$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...Gibbs
AVIATION...Ahue