910
FXHW60 PHFO 192000
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1000 AM HST Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trade winds will continue over the next few days, with
breezy to locally windy trades returning by early next week. A dry
and stable air mass across the region will help to limit windward
and mauka showers over most islands today. A weak disturbance
riding in on the trades will increase clouds and shower activity
tonight into Saturday, with another weak disturbance moving across
the islands next Tuesday. No significant rainfall is expected
from either disturbance, but it should provide some beneficial
rain for windward and mauka areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Stable trade wind pattern in place today across the state. Sparse
clouds and showers are crossing windward and mountain sections of
Oahu, Molokai and now clearing the island of Maui. A strong
inversion over the area is limiting these showers intensity and
keeping totals light.

Another area of moisture is poised to move across the state in the
low level trades from east to west tonight and Saturday, again
with limited rainfall totals and generally only for the
climatologically wetter windward areas.

Drier conditions return by late Sunday with breezy trades
expected by Monday. Breezy to locally windy trade will then
continue through much of the upcoming week as high pressure
strengthens far northeast of the state.

Another moisture plume, associated with the deeper area of clouds
and showers aligned with a weak trough currently near 133 degrees
West, is expected to move across the state on Tuesday, with model
PWATs around 1.8 inches. This system should bring more widespread
clouds and showers to windward and mauka areas of all islands.
With the stronger trades in place expect some of these showers to
spillover into leeward areas at times. Expect a return to more
typical trade wind weather conditions behind the disturbance with
strong trades continuing through the end of the upcoming week.

&&

AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue into the weekend.
Aside from a small batch of showers moving into windward Oahu this
morning, rainfall and low clouds will be minimal across the state
through this afternoon and favor the usual windward and mauka
areas with brief periods of MVFR possible. Otherwise, VFR should
prevail. A passing disturbance is expected to bring an increase in
windward showers to the state tonight through Saturday, especially
from Oahu eastward.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect nor expected through this
afternoon. AIRMET Sierra will likely be needed later tonight for
mountain obscuration as windward showers increase.

&&

MARINE...
Broad high pressure over the central north Pacific will further
strengthen and build eastward this weekend. Moderate easterly
trade winds will strengthen to fresh to locally strong by late
Sunday. Trade wind speeds will be strong enough to support Small
Craft Advisory conditions over the windier waters and channels
near Maui and the Big Island from Sunday evening through much of
next week.

Background south swell energy pulses are forecast to continue
with surf remaining below average. Small, choppy surf expected for
east facing shores for the next several days due to continued
trade winds. Surf then becomes increasingly rough along east
facing shores as locally strong trades return early next week.

Spring tides will peak this weekend, and local tide gauges
indicate water levels are already running above guidance. Water
levels are currently running at least 1 foot higher than the Mean
Higher High Water (MHHW) threshold at Hilo, Kahului, and Honolulu
and are approaching the 1 foot threshold at Lihue. A Coastal
Flood Statement is currently in effect for isolated minor
flooding through Sunday afternoon and will likely be extended
into Monday and possibly beyond.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Brenchley
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Bedal/Wroe