057
FXHW60 PHFO 110715
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
915 PM HST Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong trade winds will persist into early next week, bringing
brief showers to windward and mauka areas. There`s a potential for
increased windward shower coverage Thursday night through Friday
due to an approaching weak upper disturbance from the east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently, a ridge to the north and a tight pressure gradient
across the state are driving strong and gusty trade winds.
Observations indicate speeds near advisory thresholds this
evening, especially in windier locations.

The surface ridge is expected to strengthen gradually over the
next few days, typically reinforcing trade winds locally.
However, an approaching mid- to upper-level trough could
temporarily weaken these winds late Thursday through Friday.
Prior to this, there remains the possibility of a wind advisory
for lower elevations through the day Thursday. Strong northeast
winds at the Big Island Summits will likely persist overnight due
to the tight gradient aloft, but may decrease as the upper trough
moves through. This trough could also weaken the strong
subsidence inversion, potentially increasing windward shower
activity Thursday night through Friday, with some showers
reaching dry leeward areas of smaller islands.

Guidance suggests seasonable trade wind conditions continuing
through early next week, with the ridge remaining strong to the
north. Confidence is lower regarding a possible slight easing of
trades later next week as the ridge weakens. Showers will favor
the typical windward areas, with minimal accumulations expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Windy trade winds will continue for the next couple of days, with
passing showers favoring favor windward and mauka areas. Expect
mainly VFR, with brief MVFR in showers/low clouds. AIRMET Sierra
is likely tonight for portions of the state as windward showers
increase.

AIRMET Tango for low-level mountain lee turbulence will remain in
effect for the next several days due to the strong trades. May
also need AIRMET Tango for strong surface winds greater than 30 kt
on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong- to near gale-force easterly trades with seas up to the 10
ft advisory level will continue through early next week as the
ridge holds strong to the north.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through early next
week due to the strong trades locally and upstream of the state. A
downward trend is possible next week as the upstream fetch weakens
and the local trades begin to ease around midweek.

Surf along south facing shores will remain up as overlapping
south-southwest swells move through. After a brief down trend
Thursday, a fresh south-southwest pulse arriving Friday will
result in an upward trend going into the weekend. A more
significant south swell will gradually fill in late Saturday night
into Sunday, then likely reach the advisory level late Sunday
through Monday. A gradual downward trend is expected Tuesday
through midweek.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for all Hawaiian
waters-

&&
$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...Gibbs
AVIATION...Ahue