621
FXHW60 PHFO 051951
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
951 AM HST Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stable moderate trade wind pattern with mainly light windward
showers will prevail through Monday. Increasing trade winds and
slightly wetter conditions are possible during the middle of next
week, with breezy trades continuing into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A moderate trade wind pattern will continue through the weekend
with a weakening surface ridge far north of the islands. A mid to
upper level ridge overhead will maintain the stable conditions,
which will limit rainfall amounts. Showers will be focused over
the windward sides of the islands, with a few afternoon showers
over the Kona slopes of the Big Island. No changes to the
forecast this morning, and not expecting any significant changes
with the afternoon package.

As we head into next week, trades are expected to nudge upwards
as the pressure gradient over the islands tightens Monday night or
Tuesday. These slightly stronger winds will then persist through
the remainder of the new week. The GFS and ECMWF suggest an
increase in moisture starting Tuesday which could cause an uptick
in windward focused showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
A band of moisture moved across the smaller islands last night
resulting in widespread MVFR for areas between Maui and Oahu.
Expect any lingering MVFR cigs to continue to improve this morning
as the sun gets higher in the sky. Otherwise, moderate to locally
breezy trade winds will continue through the weekend with clouds
and passing MVFR showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Some
of these showers may spill over into leeward areas during the
overnight hours, but conditions should remain mainly VFR.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect to tempo mountain obscuration for
Oahu, Molokai, and Maui. Conditions across these islands will
continue to improve this morning and will likely drop AIRMET
Sierra with the next update. Otherwise, no other AIRMETs are
in effect.


&&

.MARINE...

Moderate to locally fresh trades will continue today and may
weaken briefly to gentle to locally fresh Saturday as a low
northeast of the state further develops, disrupting the broad
surface ridge that is driving the trades. The low will weaken and
dissipate far north of the state over the rest of the weekend and
into early next week allowing for the broad ridge to strengthen
north of the state. Typical moderate to locally strong trades are
expected to return during the first half next week along with
Small Craft conditions for typically windy zones.

Surf will remain small along all shores through the forecast
period. A mix of small, short period south southeast swell and
small, medium period south swell will keep small surf along south
facing shores through today. Over the weekend a small, short to
medium period southeast swell will become more dominate keeping
some small surf for the better exposed areas. Background south
southwest swells will keep south facing shores from going flat
through much of next week.

Overlapping small, medium period northeast and northwest swells
are expected to arrive Saturday that could provide a small bump
for northern exposures through the weekend. Otherwise, near
normal summertime flat conditions are expected for north facing
shores through the rest of the forecast period. Even though the
tradewind swell will be on a slight decline through the weekend,
the northeast swell could keep small surf along exposed east
facing shores. Typical, choppy east facing shore surf will
gradually build next week as trades strengthen.

The combination of higher than normal water levels, and afternoon
high tides, continue to result in water levels running over half
a foot above guidance around Big Island and Maui County pushing
water levels above the 3 foot Mean Lower Low Water threshold.
This will continue to create minor coastal flooding issues for
both Big Island and Maui County through the weekend mainly around
the afternoon high tide cycle.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...Ahue
MARINE...Almanza