796
FXUS61 KGYX 161922
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
322 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms should be more contained to the White
mountains this evening. Mostly dry conditions expected over the
weekend before more meaningful rainfall arrives on Monday with
an upper-level low. Coastal areas could see some rip currents
and high surf due to swell from Ernesto. Ernesto will stay well
out to sea and otherwise will not impact the northeast. An upper
level low sits near NEw England through mid week and will make
for some slightly below normal temps, and maybe a few showers
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Satellite imagery shows low-level stratus and some haze across
southern NH and the coastal plain slowly lifting and thinning
out, A stray thunderstorm is possible within the White
mountains as surface instability interacts with topographic
influences there. Haze is anticipated to linger through at least
tomorrow morning as more vertically-integrated smoke continues
to recirculate through the sky and contaminate clouds. Calm
winds and diurnal processes will lead to patchy fog and low
stratus developing overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will prevail after an upper-level low over the
Canadian Maritimes continues to drift out to sea, with some low
stratus likely persisting through much of the morning. General
cloudiness will increase through the day as a broad synoptic
scale surface low currently over the Great Lakes continue to
inch towards the northeast. This low could bring some showers
into the region Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Upper-
level troughing will allow for a very slight cool down through
the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB pattern goes from not quite zonal weakly amplified flow,
to Omega block by Monday, with trough situated over the CWA to
becoming less amplified again by the end of the week. So,
initially we deal with deepening closed low to our W Sunday into
Monday, which will mean the best chance for precip, then the
closed low sits over New England through the middle of the week,
as it fills, and slowly shift NE by Friday. After the initial
round of showers Sunday-Monday, itll turn much less humid and
cooler through the middle week, with maybe some some isolated
afternoon showers as we sit beneath a cold pool aloft, then
possible a warm trend Friday into next weekend.

On Sunday, the 500 Mb closed low over S ON and the lower Great
Lakes will intensify and track slowly E, with Ernesto tracking
N, but well S of Nova Scotia. The subsidence to the N of Ernesto
and the digging trough to our W will actually allow for ridging
over the CWA, and showers should only be isolated through the
day. I think there will be some breaks of sun given the
subsidence, but probably not near the coast where the marine
layer should be established, given the persistent onshore flow
from Saturday. Highs on Saturday will only be around 70 on the
coast from Casco bay east, and into the mid 70s of there. Inland
highs range from the low 70s in the mtns to near 80 in inland S
NH.

Expect showers to become more numerous and frequent Sunday
night, especially after midnight. Light ESE flow and increasing
Tds, should be favorable for fog in many spots as well.
Otherwise, mins should mostly be in the low to mid 60s. By
Monday morning, should see widespread showers and perhaps some
periods of light rain. TSRA are possible as well, especially
away from the coast, and some convection could produce
torrential downpours. Given the onshore and rain cant see maxes
varying too much across the CWA, but the warm tropical air mass
should allow for max temps of 70-75 in most spots. Coolest along
the mid coast. The showers and storms continue into Mon evening
before, the cold front moves through and winds switch to the W,
probably around or after midnight. Mins range from the upper
50s in the mtns to the low 60s in the S.

Tue-Thu will be somewhat similar as the cooler air in the trough
moves overhead. There will be the possibility of a few showers
Tue and Wed afternoon given the cooler air aloft and the closed
low overhead, and this will lead to partly sunny conditions as
well, but the more part it should be dry with highs in the upper
60s to around 70 in the mtns and in the mid to upper 70s in the
S. Overnight lows range from the upper 40s to low 50s in the N,
to the mid 50s in the S. Still dry and maybe a little warn by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Lingering low-level stratus and some haze continue
to lower flight restrictions across New Hampshire. A stray
thunderstorm could pop up over northern NH this afternoon. CIGs
are anticipated to lower significantly overnight with more low
stratus and fog forming in NH and western ME. Most sites are
likely to go down to LIFR for a least a couple hours overnight
or early in the morning tomorrow. Diurnal processes will help
mix out fog tomorrow morning with low-level stratus slowly
lifting out through the day tomorrow. Showers and fog possible
early Sunday morning as well.

Long Term...Sunday is likely to start with flight restrictions
due to fog and low stratus in many spots, but should see
improvement to VFR away from the coast by midday, while the
coast may see a few hours of MVFR cigs in the afternoon. It
looks like all terminals drop to IFR or lower in fog and low
cigs Sunday night, with only minor improvement during the day on
Monday with showers as well. IFR or lower expected Monday night
before a return to VFR by midday Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Seas will progressively increase as Hurricane
Ernesto churns over the north Atlantic. SCA Issuance is likely
Saturday night for seas up to 5-7 feet. Otherwise, generally
southerly winds of 7-15kts are expected tonight through Sunday
morning.

Long Term...Seas continue to be the main issue into early next
week. The will increase, on Sunday and peak on Monday in long
period swell from Ernesto. Seas away from the coast could push
to around 9 ft, while near shore waves could reach to around 6
ft. The seas will begin to slowly subside late Monday night and
Tuesday.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Palmer
NEAR TERM...Palmer
SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM...Cempa
AVIATION/MARINE...Cempa/Palmer