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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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199 FXUS61 KGYX 101430 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1030 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Debby exit early this morning with very warm temperatures in its wake today. Seasonably dry weather arrives to end the weekend Sunday with some mountains showers. Fair weather looks to persist through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... 1030 AM Update...Not much to report this morning as showers and clouds have cleared out, paving the way for a pleasant summer day. Only changes to the forecast were to smooth out observed temperature and dewpoint trends. The SCA for the bays will be allowed to expire at 11 AM as waves have come down, but the swell will be slow to exit the outer waters so the SCA there will continue there. Previous Discussion... 640 AM Update...No changes to the going forecast at this time as improving conditions continue to take place as forecast. The remnants of Debby are in Quebec and quickly moving northeastward and away from the forecast area as of 06z. Showers still remain in central ME and along the coastal plain but will weaken and move offshore early this morning leaving patchy valley fog behind. The post-Debby air mass will be quite warm today, with many areas getting well into the 80s. A few 90 degree readings are not out of the question across southeasternmost zones. Dewpoint readings will remain in the 70s this morning but will decrease as the afternoon progresses as drier air moves in from the west. A weak trough of low pressure may allow for a few showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in central ME to Midcoast ME this afternoon where the dewpoint values will remain elevated the longest. A rip current statement remains in effect for today. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mostly clear and much cooler weather is expected tonight with lows in the 50s at most locations. Upper level low pressure will approach from the west on Sunday offering increasing clouds in the afternoon and perhaps some showers during the late afternoon in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The 500 MB pattern across NOAM and its environs show ridging over the E half of the continent shifting poleward and spreading east into central Canada, while weak toughing settles over NB and the maritimes and across the NE CONUS. With sfc ridging pushing in from the W. This is very weak ridging and the flow will become quite stagnant by midweek. There is not a lot of forcing so for the most part it should be dry, but any weak waves that rotate around the weaken trough to our NE will set off some the stagnant flow will cause a chance for SHRA/TSRA. Right now the best chance looks like Wed/Thu. Temps through the extended should run fairly close to normal, depending on flow direction as usual. On Monday afternoon another weak wave moves into the base of the 500 MB trough nearby, and the 12Z Euro has backed off showers some, while the GFS has not, although the Euro still has some very light QPF. The best chance will be in the N, and that is where the chc POPs are. Partly sunny covers the sky forecast and highs are mostly in the 70s to around 80 in the S. For the most part the Euro stays dry on Tue, and have leaned in that direction. Highs on Tuesday rebound a few degrees from Monday, generally in the mid 70s to low 80s. Wed looks similar to Tuesday, although there is a possibility of a few showers. Thursday, POPS increase to Chc, as a wave move around the upper level trough to our NE, which means a better chance of showers across much of the CWA, with more clouds, and highs a few degrees lower than Wednesday. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...Conditions will quickly improve to VFR this morning as a front swings through. Valley fog will be likely tonight. Long Term...Mainly VFR expected Mon-Wed. There is a good chance of valley fog Sunday night, and could see a few showers Monday aft/eve. I think there will be enough clouds around Mon night to preclude valley but may see it again Tuesday night with stagnant flow in place. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA conditions will continue through this morning on the bays and into this evening on the outer waters as seas will remain elevated, 5-7 ft. Long Term...Winds/seas continue to subside on Sunday night and then stay stay below SCA conditions through Wed. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028. NH...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ151- 153. && $$ UPDATE...Baron NEAR/SHORT TERM...Ekster LONG TERM...Cempa/Ekster