199
FXUS61 KGYX 101430
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1030 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Debby exit early this morning with very warm
temperatures in its wake today. Seasonably dry weather arrives
to end the weekend Sunday with some mountains showers. Fair
weather looks to persist through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1030 AM Update...Not much to report this morning as showers and
clouds have cleared out, paving the way for a pleasant summer
day. Only changes to the forecast were to smooth out observed
temperature and dewpoint trends. The SCA for the bays will be
allowed to expire at 11 AM as waves have come down, but the
swell will be slow to exit the outer waters so the SCA there
will continue there.

Previous Discussion...
640 AM Update...No changes to the going forecast at this time as
improving conditions continue to take place as forecast.

The remnants of Debby are in Quebec and quickly moving
northeastward and away from the forecast area as of 06z. Showers
still remain in central ME and along the coastal plain but will
weaken and move offshore early this morning leaving patchy
valley fog behind. The post-Debby air mass will be quite warm
today, with many areas getting well into the 80s. A few 90
degree readings are not out of the question across
southeasternmost zones. Dewpoint readings will remain in the 70s
this morning but will decrease as the afternoon progresses as
drier air moves in from the west. A weak trough of low pressure
may allow for a few showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in
central ME to Midcoast ME this afternoon where the dewpoint
values will remain elevated the longest.

A rip current statement remains in effect for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly clear and much cooler weather is expected tonight with
lows in the 50s at most locations.

Upper level low pressure will approach from the west on Sunday
offering increasing clouds in the afternoon and perhaps some
showers during the late afternoon in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The 500 MB pattern across NOAM and its environs show ridging
over the E half of the continent shifting poleward and spreading
east into central Canada, while weak toughing settles over NB
and the maritimes and across the NE CONUS. With sfc ridging
pushing in from the W. This is very weak ridging and the flow
will become quite stagnant by midweek. There is not a lot of
forcing so for the most part it should be dry, but any weak
waves that rotate around the weaken trough to our NE will set
off some the stagnant flow will cause a chance for SHRA/TSRA.
Right now the best chance looks like Wed/Thu. Temps through the
extended should run fairly close to normal, depending on flow
direction as usual.

On Monday afternoon another weak wave moves into the base of
the 500 MB trough nearby, and the 12Z Euro has backed off
showers some, while the GFS has not, although the Euro still has
some very light QPF. The best chance will be in the N, and that
is where the chc POPs are. Partly sunny covers the sky forecast
and highs are mostly in the 70s to around 80 in the S. For the
most part the Euro stays dry on Tue, and have leaned in that
direction. Highs on Tuesday rebound a few degrees from Monday,
generally in the mid 70s to low 80s. Wed looks similar to
Tuesday, although there is a possibility of a few showers.
Thursday, POPS increase to Chc, as a wave move around the upper
level trough to our NE, which means a better chance of showers
across much of the CWA, with more clouds, and highs a few
degrees lower than Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Conditions will quickly improve to VFR this
morning as a front swings through. Valley fog will be likely
tonight.

Long Term...Mainly VFR expected Mon-Wed. There is a good chance
of valley fog Sunday night, and could see a few showers Monday
aft/eve. I think there will be enough clouds around Mon night to
preclude valley but may see it again Tuesday night with
stagnant flow in place.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions will continue through this morning
on the bays and into this evening on the outer waters as seas
will remain elevated, 5-7 ft.

Long Term...Winds/seas continue to subside on Sunday night and
then stay stay below SCA conditions through Wed.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MEZ023>028.
NH...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ151-
     153.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Baron
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Cempa/Ekster