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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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098 FXUS61 KGYX 102331 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 731 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Quieter weather in store this weekend and into next week as the region resides between systems. Low pressure passes through northern New England Monday, with surface high pressure nearing the region by mid week. These will bring scattered showers through the week, but only few chances for wetting rainfall. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 730 PM...Cold front, as defined by wind shift and lowered Tds, sitting from about KIWI-KBGR and should move through the mid coast area over the next few hours, although the diminishing mixing will slow it down somewhat. Otherwise should mainly clear with just some SCT cirrus overnight with mind in the mid 50s in the mtns to around 60 in the S. Previously... Impacts: * No significant weather impacts expected. Latest RAP13 analysis shows a shortwave trough still overhead at this hour. With dewpoints still in the 70s a cumulus field remains over the Kennebec Valley Region, it`s not out of the question for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop later this afternoon or early evening. Otherwise, dewpoints in the mid- to upper 50s are slowly pushing eastward. Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 50s south of the mountains and lower 50s to the north. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Impacts: * No significant weather impacts expected. An upper low approaches the region Sunday which looks to rotate another shortwave through the area during the afternoon. With little in the way of surface forcing, any showers and thunderstorms that develop would likely be confined to the mountains and foothills. Otherwise, expect another day of mostly clear skies with less humidity. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s south of the mountains, with low to mid-70s to the north. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overview: The region will see a few instances of low pressure moving overhead through the upcoming week. While no day looks like a washout, the chance for daily shower activity remains while these lows are overhead. The first will cross early week, with broad and weaker low pressure settling across the region for the remainder of the week. Temperature trends will be around normal, with overnight lows perhaps a few degrees warmer than normal. Details: Stacked low pressure will push into northern New England Monday, advancing out of southern Quebec. This is on the heels of exiting upper level jet and deeper moisture off the coast. The lack of greater lift or moisture leads the most probable outcome to be diurnally driven showers during the afternoon. These should move in cyclonic motion beneath the passing low, with focus on areas that either warm well during the afternoon, or are closer to the lows influence. This encompasses much of the CWA outside of the coast, though cloudiness could limit shower coverage over areas that remain broken or overcast (excluding the mountains). Temps should run below normal Mon given the cooler air mass and building clouds. The low will continue to push into central Maine Mon night, lifting into the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday. This brings a less favorable environment for shower potential Tuesday, but remains a slight chance of showers amid NW winds behind. Towards midweek, surface high pressure will advance east while broad area of low pressure resides aloft. This could bring the chance for daily showers or sprinkles, but dry air at the surface will mitigate how widespread these are. With wide dew point depressions at the surface, humidity should be lower for midweek with temperatures continuing around normal. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...VFR will be the prevailing condition through Sunday, however valley terminals may see a period of fog in the overnight hours. A thunderstorm is possible early this evening in the vicinity of AUG and RKD, and then again tomorrow afternoon and evening near HIE. Winds are expected to remain light. Long Term...Most terminals remain VFR through the period. Restriction concerns are focused on HIE/LEB where ceilings or fog may cause IFR restrictions at night. Scattered SHRA Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... Short Term...Wind gusts have tapered off but seas remain above SCA thresholds through tonight. Conditions will then remain below SCA criteria through Sunday. Winds will be generally westerly with gusts 10-15 kts. Long Term...Conditions below SCA through mid week. Low pressure will pass inland and towards the Canadian Maritimes Monday, with high pressure nearing the coastal waters through mid week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152. && $$ NEAR TERM...Baron/Cempa SHORT TERM...Baron LONG TERM...Cornwell