098
FXUS61 KGYX 102331
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
731 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quieter weather in store this weekend and into next week as the
region resides between systems. Low pressure passes through
northern New England Monday, with surface high pressure nearing
the region by mid week. These will bring scattered showers
through the week, but only few chances for wetting rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
730 PM...Cold front, as defined by wind shift and lowered Tds,
sitting from about KIWI-KBGR and should move through the mid
coast area over the next few hours, although the diminishing
mixing will slow it down somewhat. Otherwise should mainly clear
with just some SCT cirrus overnight with mind in the mid 50s in
the mtns to around 60 in the S.

Previously...
Impacts:
* No significant weather impacts expected.

Latest RAP13 analysis shows a shortwave trough still overhead
at this hour. With dewpoints still in the 70s a cumulus field
remains over the Kennebec Valley Region, it`s not out of the
question for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop later
this afternoon or early evening. Otherwise, dewpoints in the
mid- to upper 50s are slowly pushing eastward. Mostly clear
skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the
upper 50s south of the mountains and lower 50s to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Impacts:
* No significant weather impacts expected.

An upper low approaches the region Sunday which looks to rotate
another shortwave through the area during the afternoon. With
little in the way of surface forcing, any showers and
thunderstorms that develop would likely be confined to the
mountains and foothills. Otherwise, expect another day of mostly
clear skies with less humidity. High temperatures will be in
the low to mid 80s south of the mountains, with low to mid-70s
to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview: The region will see a few instances of low pressure
moving overhead through the upcoming week. While no day looks
like a washout, the chance for daily shower activity remains
while these lows are overhead. The first will cross early week,
with broad and weaker low pressure settling across the region
for the remainder of the week. Temperature trends will be around
normal, with overnight lows perhaps a few degrees warmer than
normal.

Details: Stacked low pressure will push into northern New
England Monday, advancing out of southern Quebec. This is on the
heels of exiting upper level jet and deeper moisture off the
coast. The lack of greater lift or moisture leads the most
probable outcome to be diurnally driven showers during the
afternoon. These should move in cyclonic motion beneath the
passing low, with focus on areas that either warm well during
the afternoon, or are closer to the lows influence. This
encompasses much of the CWA outside of the coast, though
cloudiness could limit shower coverage over areas that remain
broken or overcast (excluding the mountains). Temps should run
below normal Mon given the cooler air mass and building clouds.

The low will continue to push into central Maine Mon night,
lifting into the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday. This brings a less
favorable environment for shower potential Tuesday, but remains
a slight chance of showers amid NW winds behind. Towards
midweek, surface high pressure will advance east while broad
area of low pressure resides aloft. This could bring the chance
for daily showers or sprinkles, but dry air at the surface will
mitigate how widespread these are. With wide dew point
depressions at the surface, humidity should be lower for midweek
with temperatures continuing around normal.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR will be the prevailing condition through
Sunday, however valley terminals may see a period of fog in the
overnight hours. A thunderstorm is possible early this evening
in the vicinity of AUG and RKD, and then again tomorrow
afternoon and evening near HIE. Winds are expected to remain
light.

Long Term...Most terminals remain VFR through the period.
Restriction concerns are focused on HIE/LEB where ceilings or
fog may cause IFR restrictions at night. Scattered SHRA Monday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Wind gusts have tapered off but seas remain above
SCA thresholds through tonight. Conditions will then remain
below SCA criteria through Sunday. Winds will be generally
westerly with gusts 10-15 kts.

Long Term...Conditions below SCA through mid week. Low pressure
will pass inland and towards the Canadian Maritimes Monday, with
high pressure nearing the coastal waters through mid week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Baron/Cempa
SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Cornwell