965
FXUS61 KGYX 112233
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
633 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively quiet weather expected into next week as the region
resides between systems. Scattered showers, and possibly some
isolated thunderstorms, are expected tonight through Monday, as
low pressure passes through northern New England. Surface high
pressure nears the region by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Update...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to track east per
latest radar imagery early this evening. The latest HRRR
continues to weaken this precipitation as it enters the forecast
area. However, some light precipitation will enter northern and
central portions of the forecast area tonight. Have upped pops
slightly to mention a possible shower over central areas as well
as the northern sections.

Otherwise, only minor modifications have been made to the
overnight forecast package.

Prev Disc...
Impacts:
* No significant weather impacts expected.

Showers are on Northern New Hampshire`s doorstep at this hour
as a shortwave trough beings its approach. This area along with
the western Maine mountains will have the best chance to see
showers and even an isolated thunderstorm through this evening.
There is a chance for showers to drift through central New
Hampshire and Maine as well overnight, as an upper low moves
closer to our area, however this is less certain as the better
forcing remains to the north. Cloudier skies will keep
temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night but
temperatures south of the mountains will still be in the upper
50s to around 60, with lower 50s to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Impacts:
* No significant weather impacts expected.

Upper low moves overhead tomorrow which will bring a better
chance for showers areawide, however they look to be widely
scattered. The aim for the PoPs forecast was to convey that the
highest chance for showers, and maybe a rumble thunder, will be
in and around the mountains with decreasing chances heading
toward the coast. Otherwise, skies start mostly clear in the
morning south of the mountains, becoming partly cloudy as the
day goes on. High temperatures top out in the mid- to upper 70s
south of the mountains, with low 70s to the north. Skies will
clear overnight as the upper low departs which will allow
temperatures to fall into the mid- to upper 50s south of the
mountains, and low 50s to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview: The region will be void of any major weather systems
for much of the week. This brings mainly quiet conditions, with
some days producing afternoon showers. Temperatures will remain
around normal for this time of August.

Details: Conditions abate into Tuesday as low pressure pushes
northeast of Maine. Upper troughing remains as surface ridging
builds into the eastern CONUS. These two conditions persist for
much of the week, resulting in fairly persistent diurnal cycles.
Tuesday will feature building cloudiness and the chance for
sprinkles or showers towards the mountains in the afternoon.
Limited instability and drying mid/low levels brings reason that
any showers should be light and sparse.

Daytime clouds begin to thin in the evening, with mostly clear
skies overnight. Did go a bit lower in min temps, particularly
in valleys, given the clearing skies and winds. Winds wont be
optimal for radiational cooling, but these lower areas should
cool and perhaps fog pretty easily. Wednesday looks very similar
to Tuesday, but with a bit more mid level moisture. This could
support more shower coverage during the afternoon given a bit
better instability. Because of the slow evolution of airmasses
in the region, guidance has a similar theme playing out into
late week for Thursday as well.

Broad spread in the extended amid guidance, but the next chance
for widespread rainfall does not look likely until late this
weekend or early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR prevails with the potential for some brief
localized MVFR as showers move through the area tonight and
Monday. IFR possible with valley fog each night. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible as well. Winds remain light through
Monday night.

Long Term...Mainly VFR. Daily afternoon showers are possible for
much of this week, but coverage should remain sparse. Clouds may
tend to spread during the afternoon Wed and Thurs, this could
prompt a few spots of MVFR. Clear skies at night may promote
valley fog development, impacting some terminals such as HIE and
LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA conditions trough
Monday night. Southerly winds gusting 15-20 kts will continue
tonight, shifting westerly toward daybreak Monday. Generally
westerly flow will then continue through Monday night with
lighter gusts, 10-15 kts.

Long Term...Below SCA conditions expected. High pressure at the
surface will track east through the week, approaching the coast.
Otherwise, low pressure aloft will keep some instability over
the area for some daytime showers over land.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Cornwell