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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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965 FXUS61 KGYX 112233 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 633 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Relatively quiet weather expected into next week as the region resides between systems. Scattered showers, and possibly some isolated thunderstorms, are expected tonight through Monday, as low pressure passes through northern New England. Surface high pressure nears the region by mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Update... Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to track east per latest radar imagery early this evening. The latest HRRR continues to weaken this precipitation as it enters the forecast area. However, some light precipitation will enter northern and central portions of the forecast area tonight. Have upped pops slightly to mention a possible shower over central areas as well as the northern sections. Otherwise, only minor modifications have been made to the overnight forecast package. Prev Disc... Impacts: * No significant weather impacts expected. Showers are on Northern New Hampshire`s doorstep at this hour as a shortwave trough beings its approach. This area along with the western Maine mountains will have the best chance to see showers and even an isolated thunderstorm through this evening. There is a chance for showers to drift through central New Hampshire and Maine as well overnight, as an upper low moves closer to our area, however this is less certain as the better forcing remains to the north. Cloudier skies will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night but temperatures south of the mountains will still be in the upper 50s to around 60, with lower 50s to the north. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Impacts: * No significant weather impacts expected. Upper low moves overhead tomorrow which will bring a better chance for showers areawide, however they look to be widely scattered. The aim for the PoPs forecast was to convey that the highest chance for showers, and maybe a rumble thunder, will be in and around the mountains with decreasing chances heading toward the coast. Otherwise, skies start mostly clear in the morning south of the mountains, becoming partly cloudy as the day goes on. High temperatures top out in the mid- to upper 70s south of the mountains, with low 70s to the north. Skies will clear overnight as the upper low departs which will allow temperatures to fall into the mid- to upper 50s south of the mountains, and low 50s to the north. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overview: The region will be void of any major weather systems for much of the week. This brings mainly quiet conditions, with some days producing afternoon showers. Temperatures will remain around normal for this time of August. Details: Conditions abate into Tuesday as low pressure pushes northeast of Maine. Upper troughing remains as surface ridging builds into the eastern CONUS. These two conditions persist for much of the week, resulting in fairly persistent diurnal cycles. Tuesday will feature building cloudiness and the chance for sprinkles or showers towards the mountains in the afternoon. Limited instability and drying mid/low levels brings reason that any showers should be light and sparse. Daytime clouds begin to thin in the evening, with mostly clear skies overnight. Did go a bit lower in min temps, particularly in valleys, given the clearing skies and winds. Winds wont be optimal for radiational cooling, but these lower areas should cool and perhaps fog pretty easily. Wednesday looks very similar to Tuesday, but with a bit more mid level moisture. This could support more shower coverage during the afternoon given a bit better instability. Because of the slow evolution of airmasses in the region, guidance has a similar theme playing out into late week for Thursday as well. Broad spread in the extended amid guidance, but the next chance for widespread rainfall does not look likely until late this weekend or early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...VFR prevails with the potential for some brief localized MVFR as showers move through the area tonight and Monday. IFR possible with valley fog each night. Isolated thunderstorms are possible as well. Winds remain light through Monday night. Long Term...Mainly VFR. Daily afternoon showers are possible for much of this week, but coverage should remain sparse. Clouds may tend to spread during the afternoon Wed and Thurs, this could prompt a few spots of MVFR. Clear skies at night may promote valley fog development, impacting some terminals such as HIE and LEB. && .MARINE... Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA conditions trough Monday night. Southerly winds gusting 15-20 kts will continue tonight, shifting westerly toward daybreak Monday. Generally westerly flow will then continue through Monday night with lighter gusts, 10-15 kts. Long Term...Below SCA conditions expected. High pressure at the surface will track east through the week, approaching the coast. Otherwise, low pressure aloft will keep some instability over the area for some daytime showers over land. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Cornwell