264
FXUS61 KGYX 121430
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1030 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will give way to increasing cloud cover and showers or
storms across the region. It will clear out overnight and
relatively quiet weather is expected through midweek. High
pressure will remain in control with near normal temperatures
and very little chance of widespread rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1030 AM Update...Scattered shower activity is still present
around the International Border, with some sneaking across into
our area. Otherwise the bulk of the showers remains well to our
west with the trough axis over New York. No changes to the
forecast as this shower activity still looks on track to arrive
in New Hampshire this afternoon. This update just served to load
in latest observations and smooth trends through the early
afternoon.

Previous Discussion...
625 AM Update...Any remaining showers this morning will be
confined to the mtns near the Canadian border. Likewise...cloud
cover will be higher in the mtns...gradually filling in from the
west and with daytime heating. No significant changes to the
forecast.

Area of showers departing the Kennebec Valley this morning and
will lead to a period of dry weather to start the day. Upper
trof remains overhead today however...and cool temps aloft will
allow daytime heating to force scattered convection by
afternoon. Showers or storms are most likely farther north and
west...and that is where PoP is highest in the forecast...but a
shower could hold together all the way to coastal locations as
well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Diurnal convection will begin to diminish after sunset this
evening. As skies gradually clear the typical low spots will
see radiational cooling bring readings down into the low 50s
across the north. Otherwise a comfortable night for the rest of
the forecast area.

Return flow will allow for warmer temps Tue. Some diurnal
instability may bring another round of convection though model
guidance is fairly dry. A point of focus may be along the sea
breeze...where convergence will be maximized.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview: The region will be void of any major weather systems
for much of the week. This brings mainly quiet conditions, with
some days producing afternoon showers. Temperatures will remain
around normal for this time of August.

Details: Upper troughing remains as surface ridging builds into
the eastern CONUS. These two conditions persist for much of the
week, resulting in fairly persistent diurnal cycles. Daytime
clouds begin to thin in the evening, with mostly clear skies
overnight. Did go a bit lower in min temps, particularly in
valleys, given the clearing skies and winds. Winds wont be
optimal for radiational cooling, but these lower areas should
cool and perhaps fog pretty easily. Wednesday looks very similar
to Tuesday, but with a bit more mid level moisture. This could
support more shower coverage during the afternoon given a bit
better instability. Because of the slow evolution of airmasses
in the region, guidance has a similar theme playing out into
late week for Thursday as well.

Broad spread in the extended amid guidance, but the next chance
for widespread rainfall does not look likely until late this
weekend or early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Valley fog around the CT River will linger thru
morning...with local LIFR conditions at HIE and LEB. Otherwise
widespread VFR conditions expected. Scattered SHRA possible this
afternoon...though confidence is too low to include in any TAFs
at this time. Valley fog is possible again tonight...especially
in areas that receive rain.

Long Term...Mainly VFR. Daily afternoon showers are possible for
much of this week, but coverage should remain sparse. Clouds may
tend to spread during the afternoon Wed and Thurs, this could
prompt a few spots of MVFR. Clear skies at night may promote
valley fog development, impacting some terminals such as HIE and
LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
thresholds.

Long Term...Below SCA conditions expected. High pressure at the
surface will track east through the week, approaching the coast.
Otherwise, low pressure aloft will keep some instability over
the area for some daytime showers over land.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Baron
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Cornwell