![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
264 FXUS61 KGYX 121430 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1030 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Today will give way to increasing cloud cover and showers or storms across the region. It will clear out overnight and relatively quiet weather is expected through midweek. High pressure will remain in control with near normal temperatures and very little chance of widespread rain. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... 1030 AM Update...Scattered shower activity is still present around the International Border, with some sneaking across into our area. Otherwise the bulk of the showers remains well to our west with the trough axis over New York. No changes to the forecast as this shower activity still looks on track to arrive in New Hampshire this afternoon. This update just served to load in latest observations and smooth trends through the early afternoon. Previous Discussion... 625 AM Update...Any remaining showers this morning will be confined to the mtns near the Canadian border. Likewise...cloud cover will be higher in the mtns...gradually filling in from the west and with daytime heating. No significant changes to the forecast. Area of showers departing the Kennebec Valley this morning and will lead to a period of dry weather to start the day. Upper trof remains overhead today however...and cool temps aloft will allow daytime heating to force scattered convection by afternoon. Showers or storms are most likely farther north and west...and that is where PoP is highest in the forecast...but a shower could hold together all the way to coastal locations as well. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Diurnal convection will begin to diminish after sunset this evening. As skies gradually clear the typical low spots will see radiational cooling bring readings down into the low 50s across the north. Otherwise a comfortable night for the rest of the forecast area. Return flow will allow for warmer temps Tue. Some diurnal instability may bring another round of convection though model guidance is fairly dry. A point of focus may be along the sea breeze...where convergence will be maximized. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overview: The region will be void of any major weather systems for much of the week. This brings mainly quiet conditions, with some days producing afternoon showers. Temperatures will remain around normal for this time of August. Details: Upper troughing remains as surface ridging builds into the eastern CONUS. These two conditions persist for much of the week, resulting in fairly persistent diurnal cycles. Daytime clouds begin to thin in the evening, with mostly clear skies overnight. Did go a bit lower in min temps, particularly in valleys, given the clearing skies and winds. Winds wont be optimal for radiational cooling, but these lower areas should cool and perhaps fog pretty easily. Wednesday looks very similar to Tuesday, but with a bit more mid level moisture. This could support more shower coverage during the afternoon given a bit better instability. Because of the slow evolution of airmasses in the region, guidance has a similar theme playing out into late week for Thursday as well. Broad spread in the extended amid guidance, but the next chance for widespread rainfall does not look likely until late this weekend or early next week. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...Valley fog around the CT River will linger thru morning...with local LIFR conditions at HIE and LEB. Otherwise widespread VFR conditions expected. Scattered SHRA possible this afternoon...though confidence is too low to include in any TAFs at this time. Valley fog is possible again tonight...especially in areas that receive rain. Long Term...Mainly VFR. Daily afternoon showers are possible for much of this week, but coverage should remain sparse. Clouds may tend to spread during the afternoon Wed and Thurs, this could prompt a few spots of MVFR. Clear skies at night may promote valley fog development, impacting some terminals such as HIE and LEB. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. Long Term...Below SCA conditions expected. High pressure at the surface will track east through the week, approaching the coast. Otherwise, low pressure aloft will keep some instability over the area for some daytime showers over land. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Baron NEAR/SHORT TERM...Legro LONG TERM...Cornwell