387
FXUS61 KGYX 080201 AAA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1001 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
across the north. A few storms may be strong, and contain gusty
winds. Storms creep southward overnight, but a muggy night is
still expected for most of the population corridor. The heat
winds down on Tuesday, with hot temperatures mainly confined to
York county and the Seacoast. A front stalls over the area
Tuesday evening, with chances for afternoon showers and storms
through the rest of the week. Temperatures will be substantially
cooler for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Update...Thunderstorm intensity is waning but still getting
some lightning strikes from satellite and ground networks.
Highest PoP will continue to be along the international
border...but with front taking its time to sink south showers or
a rumble of thunder will remain possible for most areas thru
the night. Otherwise no significant changes.

Previous discussion...Hot and humid conditions continue into
the early evening hours. Scattered thunderstorms also make
southward progress into the mountains late this afternoon and
evening as a cold front sags southward tonight. The chance for
some gusty thunderstorms continues into the evening hours across
northern locations and the higher terrain.

Temperatures remain warm in most areas overnight, with upper
60s to low 70s in most locations. Cooler air does start to
arrive behind the front however near the Canadian border, with
lows dipping into the 50s by morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The progress of the cold front has been slower compared to
earlier thinking, and the forecast for tomorrow reflects this
trend. The slower progress of the front results in one more day
of heat and humidity across southeast New Hampshire, with heat
indices back into the mid to upper 90s again on Tuesday. In
these areas, a heat advisory has been issued for tomorrow as
well. A sizable temperature gradient is expected tomorrow, as
areas near the Canadian border struggle to reach 70 degrees,
while southern NH warms to near 90.

In between, the cold front makes gradually southward progress
through the daytime. After a quick warm up through the morning,
temps likely fall during the afternoon with the passage of the
front across central Maine and New Hampshire, as well as
southwest Maine. The northern edge of the heat advisory is where
temperatures are expected to cool midday before reaching
advisory criteria, but any further slowdown in the front`s
progress would result in higher temperatures expanding further
north.

Additionally, increasing tropical moisture associated with the
remnants of Chantal reach into southern and coastal areas ahead
of the front late tonight and tomorrow. As the front moves
through, scattered showers and thunderstorms likely develop by
the early afternoon hours. With deep tropical moisture, very
heavy downpours and high rainfall rates are likely with these
storms. With the slow movement of the front, the threat for
localized flash flooding does exist, with the greatest chance
across southwest Maine and southeast New Hampshire.

The front moves through by the late evening hours, with storms
dissipating through the evening. The front slows across southern
New England overnight. Moisture continues to ride along the
front Tuesday night, with showers and isolated thunderstorms
possible again after midnight across southern New Hampshire.
These will also have to be monitored for the flash flooding
potential, especially if storms move through the same areas on
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The second half of the week and next weekend will feature cooler
temperatures and unsettled weather. High temperatures look to be in
the 70s Wednesday through Friday as ensemble guidance suggests a
weak mid-level trough moves in from the west.  Some weak forcing and
daytime destabilization may allow for some diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms to form on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday
afternoons. Thunderstorm chances look to be the highest on
Thursday, especially in the CT River Valley and locations north
of the mountains.

The 500mb trough will slowly loosen over the weekend, with some
warmer high temperatures on tap to start next week. Saturday and
Sunday, highs look to be near 80F most places, with lower 80s early
next week. Next weekend looks mostly dry, though a shower or two
can`t be ruled out. More unsettled weather is possible to start off
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR prevails into the evening, but marine fog and
stratus likely moves into coastal terminals with MVFR to IFR
conditions late this evening and overnight. This likely persists
into mid-morning on Tuesday before burning off, with MVFR
ceilings lingering through most of the day. Valley fog likely
develops at LEB and HIE late tonight, before improving back to
MVFR and VFR by mid morning. Scattered showers and storms are
possible at all terminals tomorrow afternoon. Showers and storms
are possible again late Tuesday night at PSM, CON, and MHT.
Valley fog is likely again Tuesday night.

Long Term...Generally VFR is expected through most of the extended,
though scattered showers and thunderstorms in the second half of the
week could allow for some brief restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions subside this evening as a cold
front sags south across the waters. Areas of fog continue
tonight and into the day on Tuesday. Conditions remain below SCA
levels through tomorrow night on the north side of the front.

Long Term...2-4ft seas are expected through the second half of the week,
with easterly winds at 5-12kts expected. No SCA issuance
expected for the time period.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Palmer