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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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384 FXUS61 KGYX 121927 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 327 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Skies clear tonight as low pressure swings northeast. A trough will swing into the region mid week, bringing additional chances of showers or thunder. Upper level low pressure resides into late week, before departing ahead of high pressure. Near normal temperatures and very little chance of widespread rain this week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... Impacts: * No significant weather impacts expected. Radar shows scattered showers continuing to stream into the area at this hour. Showers will continue to traverse the area through this evening as the trough gradually swings through. An isolated thunderstorm is not out of the question, especially in southern zones that saw the most sun today. These rain showers will generally be light, however with modest PWATs and low level lapse rates any stronger showers or isolated thunderstorms would be capable of moderate rain rates and gusty winds. Severe weather is not expected. Skies gradually clear overnight as the trough departs, maybe a couple degrees warmer with the increased cloud cover, so kept low temperatures very similar to last night with low 50s in the mountains and foothills, and mid- to upper 50s to the south. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Impacts: * No significant weather impacts expected. Tomorrow looks to be warmer as return flow behind the departing low pressure ushers in some 12C 850 mb temperatures. Mostly clear skies and good mixing should allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid-80s south of the mountains, with mid-upper 70s to the north. Northerly flow will keep most of the area dry, but can`t totally rule out a diurnally driven shower in the mountains or along the seabreeze boundary during the afternoon. Skies remain clear for Sunday night, so expect yet another night with temperatures in the low 50s in northern zones, and mid- to upper 50s in the south. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Overview: Daily chances for afternoon showers this week, some thunder mixed in. Thunder chances will be greater Wed/Thurs afternoon as a boundary drops out of Quebec. Surface high pressure moves in late week. Low pressure then advances into the Great Lakes this weekend, with rain chances increasing late. Details: Wednesday, an embedded shortwave in broader low pressure will swing down from Quebec/New Brunswick. This may create a similar environment we saw on Monday as cooler air aloft moves in. Expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as heating peaks. Shear is very low in this environment, and think daytime instability will be imbalanced. Thus stronger cells may lack sustainable updrafts and rain themselves out. This could still result in gusty winds as rain cooled air descends, but otherwise signs point to sub severe storms at this time. Wednesday night, this trough organizes into an upper low, remaining overhead Thursday. Elevated instability remains, and a few persistent overnight showers are be possible. The placement of the low could bring similar conditions for Wednesday in terms of shower/thunder potential. High pressure moves into the Northeast Friday and early this weekend. This will bring lower chances of daytime showers, but the next weather maker will be moving into the Great Lakes for additional rain chances late this weekend. Overall, daytime and overnight temps ride within a few degrees of normal, perhaps cooler if cloud cover prevails during the day. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...VFR will continue to prevail tonight, with the possibility of some localized IFR/LIFR with fog at LEB and HIE especially since they will see showers this evening.VFR conditions will then return through Tuesday night. Isolated thunder is possible with passing showers this evening. Westerly/northwesterly winds are expected to remain light. Long Term...SHRA Wednesday and Thursday. This could prompt occasional MVFR ceilings at times. Fog may develop Wed night, bringing some visibility restrictions across the interior. Little notable winds. && .MARINE... Short Term...Conditions will remain below SCA criteria through Wednesday night. Winds will be generally westerly/northwesterly with a seabreeze Tuesday afternoon. Gusts will generally be 10-15 kts. Long Term...Below SCA conditions with waves 1 to 2 ft. Broad upper level low pressure forms Wed/Thurs over New England. This will bring some showers to the waters, but little notable wind speeds. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Baron LONG TERM...Cornwell