942
FXUS61 KGYX 130239
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1039 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Skies clear tonight as low pressure swings northeast. A trough
will swing into the region mid week, bringing additional chances
of showers or thunder. Upper level low pressure resides into
late week, before departing ahead of high pressure. Near normal
temperatures and very little chance of widespread rain this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1015 PM Update...
Any leftover showers or sprinkles will continue to dissipate
over the mountains over the next hour or two, leaving all areas
with chilly conditions and varying amounts of clouds. Will
continue with patchy fog in the valleys for the overnight hours.
Otherwise, just minor edits to the near term portion of the
forecast.

Update...
A few showers continue over the region this evening, but the
general trend will be for the precipitation to dry up over time.
The latest HRRR appears to have a good handle on this trend.

Skies will become mainly clear after sunset in some areas. With
light winds and temperatures cooling, this will lead to the
development of patchy fog.

Prev Disc...
Impacts:
* No significant weather impacts expected.

Radar shows scattered showers continuing to stream into the
area at this hour. Showers will continue to traverse the area
through this evening as the trough gradually swings through. An
isolated thunderstorm is not out of the question, especially in
southern zones that saw the most sun today. These rain showers
will generally be light, however with modest PWATs and low level
lapse rates any stronger showers or isolated thunderstorms
would be capable of moderate rain rates and gusty winds. Severe
weather is not expected. Skies gradually clear overnight as the
trough departs, maybe a couple degrees warmer with the increased
cloud cover, so kept low temperatures very similar to last
night with low 50s in the mountains and foothills, and mid- to
upper 50s to the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Impacts:
* No significant weather impacts expected.

Tomorrow looks to be warmer as return flow behind the departing
low pressure ushers in some 12C 850 mb temperatures. Mostly
clear skies and good mixing should allow temperatures to climb
into the low to mid-80s south of the mountains, with mid-upper
70s to the north. Northerly flow will keep most of the area dry,
but can`t totally rule out a diurnally driven shower in the
mountains or along the seabreeze boundary during the afternoon.
Skies remain clear for Sunday night, so expect yet another night
with temperatures in the low 50s in northern zones, and mid- to
upper 50s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview: Daily chances for afternoon showers this week, some
thunder mixed in. Thunder chances will be greater Wed/Thurs
afternoon as a boundary drops out of Quebec. Surface high
pressure moves in late week. Low pressure then advances into the
Great Lakes this weekend, with rain chances increasing late.

Details: Wednesday, an embedded shortwave in broader low
pressure will swing down from Quebec/New Brunswick. This may
create a similar environment we saw on Monday as cooler air
aloft moves in. Expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon as heating peaks. Shear is very low in this
environment, and think daytime instability will be imbalanced.
Thus stronger cells may lack sustainable updrafts and rain
themselves out. This could still result in gusty winds as rain
cooled air descends, but otherwise signs point to sub severe
storms at this time.

Wednesday night, this trough organizes into an upper low,
remaining overhead Thursday. Elevated instability remains, and
a few persistent overnight showers are be possible. The
placement of the low could bring similar conditions for
Wednesday in terms of shower/thunder potential.

High pressure moves into the Northeast Friday and early this
weekend. This will bring lower chances of daytime showers, but
the next weather maker will be moving into the Great Lakes for
additional rain chances late this weekend.

Overall, daytime and overnight temps ride within a few degrees
of normal, perhaps cooler if cloud cover prevails during the
day.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR will continue to prevail tonight, with the
possibility of some localized IFR/LIFR with fog at LEB and HIE
especially since they will see showers this evening.VFR
conditions will then return through Tuesday night. Isolated
thunder is possible with passing showers this evening.
Westerly/northwesterly winds are expected to remain light.

Long Term...SHRA Wednesday and Thursday. This could prompt
occasional MVFR ceilings at times. Fog may develop Wed night,
bringing some visibility restrictions across the interior.
Little notable winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions will remain below SCA criteria through
Wednesday night. Winds will be generally westerly/northwesterly
with a seabreeze Tuesday afternoon. Gusts will generally be
10-15 kts.

Long Term...Below SCA conditions with waves 1 to 2 ft. Broad
upper level low pressure forms Wed/Thurs over New England. This
will bring some showers to the waters, but little notable wind
speeds.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Cannon/Baron