354
FXUS61 KGYX 131419
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1019 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue building in today, with mostly sunny
skies and warm temperatures. It will be a dirty high pressure
however, and by midweek showers and thunderstorms are likely to
form during the heat of the afternoons. A more organized chance
of rain is unlikely until next weekend with the approach of a
cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10:30 AM Update...
Current forecast remains largely on track. Satellite imagery
shows some low-level clouds up in the White Mountains obscuring
mountain summits above 3500 feet, with generally overcast skies
being reported in adjacent mtn valleys. These clouds will
likely hang on through much of the late morning before giving
away to higher clouds by daybreak. Clouds are expected to
spread out towards the rest of the area, giving all of NH and
western ME a few more clouds this afternoon. Temperatures were
refreshed with latest observations with no meaningful changes
to anything else in the current forecast.


Previously...
6:30 AM Update...
Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.

4:00 AM...Return flow will allow temps to be warmer this
afternoon...with most locations climbing into the 80s south of
the mtns. S/WV ridging should tend to suppress any chances for
convection this afternoon. If showers do manage to form...they
will be most likely in the higher terrain...where orographic
forcing may provide enough lift.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet conditions again tonight...with very similar temps and
coverage of valley fog is expected. By Wed afternoon cooler
temps aloft will allow for afternoon instability despite surface
high pressure. The lack of shear will preclude an organized
severe thunderstorm threat...but ample CAPE is forecast.
Ultimately that should lend itself to pulse type storms that may
briefly reach near severe thresholds. CSU machine learning
guidance supports a marginal threat of both large hail and
damaging winds. The loss of daytime heating should bring a
relatively quick end to convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overview: Daily chances for afternoon showers this week, some
thunder mixed in. Thunder chances will be greater Thurs
afternoon as a boundary drops out of Quebec. Surface high
pressure moves in late week. Low pressure then advances into the
Great Lakes this weekend, with rain chances increasing late.

Details: Wednesday night, this trough organizes into an upper
low, remaining overhead Thursday. Elevated instability remains,
and a few persistent overnight showers are be possible. The
placement of the low could bring similar conditions for
Wednesday in terms of shower/thunder potential.

High pressure moves into the Northeast Friday and early this
weekend. This will bring lower chances of daytime showers, but
the next weather maker will be moving into the Great Lakes for
additional rain chances late this weekend.

Overall, daytime and overnight temps ride within a few degrees
of normal, perhaps cooler if cloud cover prevails during the
day.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Local LIFR conditions in the CT River Valley will
lift this morning as daytime heating mixes out the low levels.
Otherwise widespread VFR conditions expected today. Another
round of local LIFR in valley fog is possible tonight...most
likely at HIE and LEB. Then Wed scattered SHRA/TSRA will develop
during the afternoon. Local MVFR or lower conditions are
possible in convection...though confidence in location is low.

Long Term...SHRA Thursday. This could prompt occasional MVFR
ceilings at times. Fog may develop Wed night, bringing some
visibility restrictions across the interior. Little notable
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA
thresholds. Afternoon sea breezes are likely to prevail under a
weak pressure gradient.

Long Term...Below SCA conditions with waves 1 to 2 ft. Broad
upper level low pressure forms Thurs over New England. This
will bring some showers to the waters, but little notable wind
speeds.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Palmer
NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Cornwell