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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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488 FXUS61 KGYX 160256 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1056 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Friday should be drier than today but a few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out north of the mountains. Hurricane Ernesto moves parallel to the Gulf of Maine Sunday night bringing high seas and swell to the coast, with no other impacts from Ernesto expected. The weather after Sunday looks unsettled with showers and storms possible through much of early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 1050 PM Update...No changes to the going forecast. Showers and storms have dissipated and now we are left with areas of fog and low clouds overnight. 645 PM Update...Showers and a few thunderstorms continue across the forecast area, mainly over western NH. These will wane in the next 1-2 hours with the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, most of the rest of the area should remain dry. Previously... A mature upper-level low over the Canadian Maritimes continues to bring cooler and moist conditions into NH and ME. Current observations shows overcast and temperatures in the 70s across western Maine with much warmer temperatures observed over the CT river valley. This upper-level low will interact with a right jet-exit region in an environment with 1400J of CAPE and low-level wind shear, allowing for the development of more strong thunderstorms this afternoon. Any developing storms will move south through the evening, with gusty winds and small hail remaining possible with some of the stronger storms that develop. Once the sun sets this evening, energy will be lost quickly and not long after storms will start to fizzle out. The calm winds after the storms tonight will allow for easy development of fog as temperatures cool down within a remnant moist environment overnight. Areas of fog will overspread the region tomorrow morning with the aforementioned upper-level low heading off to sea. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Maine should expect to see slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow with similar temperatures expected in New Hampshire. Some destabilization around daybreak tomorrow will allow a few storms to pop-up north of the mountains. More calm winds tomorrow night, within a drier environment than tonight`s will allow for some patchy fog to form tomorrow night, though less fog than what is expected tonight. Winds will start picking up from the south/southeast as a cold front associated with an upper-level low in the Great Lakes approach the region && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At 500 MB, the weekend will start will a small area of ridging over New England as we sit between upstream and downstream trough and Ernesto to our SE. By Monday that trough shifts over the NE CONUS. And 500 MB flow on the downstream side tightens up a bit as it runs into ridging and absorbs Ernesto to our E, which makes Monday the day with the most dynamic forcing and the best chance for rain. The trough, and likely associated cold front swings through on Tuesday, with cooler and less humid air moving in for the middle of the week. However, will have that 500 MB trough lingering, which means a chance for some showers. By late week, should see some sfc ridging move in beneath NW flow aloft. Models seem a little more optimistic about the weekend, given the relative ridging overhead. Still cannot rule out a few SHRA/TSRA, especially if a greater amount of sun leads to increased instability, although Saturday seems better capped than Sunday, so slightly lower chances then. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper SS to lows 80, while on Sunday, with better onshore flow and more clouds, mainly run in the 75-80 range. Itll be more humid with Tds running in the mid to upper 60s, and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. On Monday,, as that upper level trough starts to deepening a bit and a wave lifts out of the base of it, will see more in the way of SHRA/TSRA, and it`ll be more cloudy as well. Also humidity will be up with tds in the mid 60s N to the upper 60s and low 70s S. Highs will be closer to the mid 70s than 80 on Monday as well. SHRA/TSRA continue into Mon evening, but should start to wane somewhat after midnight, and the cold front may make into the mtns late so lows range from the upper 50s there to the low to mid 60s in the S. Tuesday and Wed will be cooler and drier as 950 temps drop below +10C, so highs will generally be in the 70s both days. The cooler air aloft and the 500 MB trough overhead will be enough for scattered daytime showers to develop, and perhaps a couple TSRA as well. Overnight lows will be more comfortable and range from the low 50s in the mtns to the mid to upper 50s in the S. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term... Areas of fog early tomorrow morning will likely bring most sites down to LIFR. Most fog tomorrow should mix out by 9 AM. Scattered storms tomorrow afternoon may impact HIE, but no other impacts are expected tomorrow. Patchy fog may return for Thursday morning. Long Term... While VFR is expected to prevail through the weekend, cannot rule out some brief flight restrictions due to SHRA/TSRA and then patch fog at night. Late Sunday night into Monday could some low stratus and numerous SHRA, plus a few TSRA, and will likely see MVFR with some periods of IFR through the day, with possibly some LIFR into Monday night. Expecting a return to mainly VFR Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... Short Term... Light southeasterly flow expected tonight with less than 3 ft seas. Thick fog is possible tomorrow morning over the Gulf, but otherwise tomorrow will feature light southeasterly flow and 2-3 ft seas. Seas increase a little tomorrow night and into Saturday morning. No SCAs are expected over the next 2 days. Long Term... Winds will not be an issue this weekend into early next week, but seas will increase, especially on Sunday and peak on Monday in long period swell from Ernesto. Seas away from the coast could push to almost 10 ft, while near shore waves could reach to around 6 ft. The seas will begin to subside late Monday night and Tuesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Palmer NEAR TERM...Ekster/Palmer SHORT TERM...Palmer LONG TERM...Cempa AVIATION... MARINE...