381
FXUS61 KGYX 191849
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
249 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A mainly dry and seasonable pattern continues through the
upcoming weekend and into early next week. High pressure slides
south of the region through tomorrow. A weakening cold front
sags southward on Sunday and stalls, lingering into early next
week. Moisture increases by midweek as a ridge builds into the
Northeast, with showers and storms returning for Wednesday and
Thursday. Drier weather likely returns by Friday and into next
weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Seasonably warm but comfortable conditions will be the story
the remainder of this afternoon with most seeing temperatures
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s and dewpoints in the 50s.
As we get closer to sunset, the diurnal cu will begin to fade as
heating is lost, and temperatures will cool off pretty quickly
this evening as winds will be a touch lighter than yesterday.
This continues through tonight as skies remain mostly clear and
am expected lows to be a couple of degrees cooler than last
night/this morning. With the good radiational cooling, have
leaned more on MOS, putting most in the 50s, except for a few
closer to the coast remaining around 60. Normally cooler spots
could dip into the low 50s along with upper 40s in some of the
northern valleys. Patchy valley is again possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure sinks to the south and east on Saturday as a weak
frontal boundary approaches from the north. Low-level flow becomes
more southwesterly and temps aloft also warm, which will bring high
temperatures back up a couple of degrees as good mixing will occur
again. There will still be a significant amount of dry air
aloft, which will keep skies mostly sunny (although there will
be some cirrus moving in the afternoon), and the good mixing
will also bring this drier air down, keeping humidity levels
comfortable. Highs will be the low-mid 80s for much of the
interior with some upper 80s across southeast NH and portions of
SW Maine.

The previously mentioned weak cold front will drop southward out of
Canada Saturday evening and Saturday night. There`s not much going
for this front, but it will bring an increase in cloud cover and a
chance of showers across northern areas with mainly just increasing
clouds for areas to the south. Temps are not expected to get quite
as cool with most seeing upper 50s to lower 60s with dewpoints
creeping upward ahead of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overview...

A cold front stalls across New England as it sags southward on
Sunday. The stalled front lingers into the middle of week as a
ridge builds in from the southeast, bringing increasing moisture
and chances for showers and storms. It takes until late in the
week for the next front to push through to bring any meaningful
clearing as high pressure gradually builds in from the west.

Details...

The front slowly presses southward during the day on Sunday,
bringing with it a chance for some scattered showers or a stray
thunderstorm. The timing of the front doesn`t serve well for
more widespread convection, with leftover convection from the
day before likely limping through northern areas during the
morning. The front then stalls across New England, with a few
more afternoon showers and storms developing near the front. The
front then wobbles back and forth for a few days, with
scattered showers and storms developing in the afternoon. Monday
looks like the best chance for a dry day, with the front most
likely south of our forecast area.

By Tuesday, the front begins to drift northward with increasing
moisture as the ridge builds along the Northeast coast. This
threat increases into Wednesday as the front remains nearby
while moisture continues to increase. Wednesday looks to feature
the most widespread threat for showers and storms. There is the
threat for some areas of heavier rainfall, but we`ll have to
wait until we`re closer in time to try to pin down these
locations and see where the stalled front has drifted to by that
timeframe.

By Thursday, a weak wave of low pressure may try to develop and
drift along the front as a stronger cold front approaches from
the west. Showers and storms are likely again on Thursday with
these features, but then chances drop by Friday as high pressure
begins to build in from the west behind the front.

In terms of temperatures, temps look to remain warm for Sunday
and into the first part of the week as the humidity increases.
Wednesday and Thursday look like the only chances for highs to
get close to or just a hair below normal with the rain and
clouds. Then by Friday and into next weekend temps warm again as
the sunshine returns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Mostly VFR through Saturday night. Valley fog may brief
a brief period of restrictions to HIE and LEB late tonight and early
Saturday, and a weak cold front dropping southward out of Canada
could bring a few showers and possibly MVFR ceilings to HIE Saturday
night.

Long Term...Mainly VFR prevails during the daytime Sunday
through Tuesday, with nighttime valley fog likely each night. A
stray afternoon shower or storm may bring brief restrictions at
any terminal each day. On Wednesday and Thursday, showers and
storms look more frequent with restrictions at times. VFR likely
prevails from Friday into next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions across the waters are expected remain below
SCA levels. Light south to southwest flow across the waters will
continue through most of Saturday night before becoming more
westerly as a weak cold front approaches toward daybreak Sunday
morning.

Long Term...A front stalls and lingers across the waters on
Sunday through early next week. Areas of locally dense fog are
possible starting on Tuesday. These conditions continue through
the middle of the week as a weak wave of low pressure moves
along the front Wednesday and Thursday. Pressure gradients
remain weak through next week, so conditions mostly look to stay
below SCA levels.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Combs
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Clair