362
FXUS61 KGYX 200736
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
336 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides fair weather today. A cold front drops
south tonight through Sunday that will bring the chance for
isolated showers. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions continue into
Monday. Moisture increases Tuesday with daily chances for
showers and afternoon thunderstorms into Friday. High pressure
looks to return for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure centered south of New England will allow for
another day of fair weather today. Skies will start off mostly
clear outside of some patchy valley fog early this morning.
Waves of low pressure moving through the Mid-Atlantic will
spread some cirrus into southern areas this afternoon. A cold
front dropping south through Quebec will lead to steady WSW
winds through the afternoon. These steady WSW winds will limit
the inland penetration of a sea breeze with highs generally in
the mid to upper 80s with comfortable humidity levels as
dewpoints will be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The cold front in Quebec will start to weaken as it approaches
northern zones tonight. This front will bring scattered showers
across the north tonight. Winds also look to remain steady
overnight limiting radiational cooling. Lows will not drop as
low as last night and will range from the 50s north to the 60s
across the south.

The cold front continues to weaken as sinks into southern zones
Sunday. Mesoscale models generally keep the forecast area dry
as the front drops south of the mountains while an isolated
shower cannot be ruled out. Highs on Sunday will range from the
70s across the north to mid 80s across the south with winds
shifting more northwesterly.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overview...

A stalled front lingers over New England into the middle of
week as a ridge builds in from the southeast, bringing
increasing moisture and chances for showers and storms. It takes
until late in the week for the next front to push through to
bringing any meaningful clearing as high pressure gradually
builds in from the west.

Details...

The front wobbles back and forth for a few days, with scattered
showers and storms developing in the afternoon. Monday looks
like the best chance for a dry day, with the front most likely
south of our forecast area.

By Tuesday, the front begins to drift northward with increasing
moisture as the ridge builds along the Northeast coast. This
threat increases into Wednesday as the front remains nearby
while moisture continues to increase. Wednesday looks to feature
the most widespread threat for showers and storms. There is the
threat for some areas of heavier rainfall, but we`ll have to
wait until we`re closer in time to try to pin down these
locations and see where the stalled front has drifted to by that
timeframe.

By Thursday, a weak wave of low pressure may try to develop and
drift along the front as a stronger cold front approaches from
the west. Showers and storms are likely again on Thursday with
these features, but then chances drop by Friday as high pressure
begins to build in from the west behind the front.

In terms of temperatures, temps look to remain warm for Sunday
and into the first part of the week as the humidity increases.
Wednesday and Thursday look like the only chances for highs to
get close to or just a hair below normal with the rain and
clouds. Then by Friday and into next weekend temps warm again as
the sunshine returns.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR prevails today through Sunday. A front
moving into the area tonight may provide enough clouds and wind
to limit any valley fog.

Long Term...Mainly VFR prevails during the daytime Monday
through Tuesday, with nighttime valley fog likely each night. A
stray afternoon shower or storm may bring brief restrictions at
any terminal each day. On Wednesday and Thursday, showers and
storms look more frequent with restrictions at times. VFR likely
prevails from Friday into next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds today
through Sunday with high pressure centered south of New England
today. A weak cold front approaches the waters tonight shifting
winds out of the SW and then briefly out of the NW Sunday
morning before winds turn back onshore Sunday afternoon.

Long Term...A front stalls and lingers across the waters on
through early next week. Areas of locally dense fog are
possible starting on Tuesday. These conditions continue through
the middle of the week as a weak wave of low pressure moves
along the front Wednesday and Thursday. Pressure gradients
remain weak through next week, so conditions mostly look to stay
below SCA levels.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Clair