195
FXPQ50 PGUM 090753
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
553 PM ChST Tue Jul 9 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite imagery is showing generally partly cloudy skies and
passing trade showers. Increasing clouds and showers are to the south
and east of the Marianas.

&&

.Discussion...
Showers look to increase late tonight into tomorrow as a surface
trough pushes in from the southeast, which matches well with latest
satellite imagery and CIMMS MIMIC layer precipitable water. Expect
scattered showers for most of the rest of the work week. Model
moisture time heights are showing deeper column moisture arriving
Wednesday night. Rain amounts and shower coverage may need to be
increased if model trends continue. Thunderstorms are possible
beginning Wednesday as instability and column moisture are increased
and a TUTT moves into the region and looks to provide some upper-
level support. Models are trending drier for the weekend, but are
showing an increase in showers again for early next week.

&&

.Marine/Surf...
Gentle to moderate trade winds and combined seas of 3 to 5 feet will
continue through the week. A surface trough and moisture creeping
northwest will cause an uptick in showers and bring a potential for
thunderstorms late tonight through the end of the work week.

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along east facing
reefs, with a low risk along all other reefs.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies over the Marshalls and
Kosrae, and partly cloudy skies over Pohnpei. Showers were observed
over Kosrae and Majuro. Skies over Pohnpei have been clearing. Seas
remain fairly benign.

Majuro is expected to have scattered showers for the next 48 hours,
but this will be dropping from the high-end of scattered to the low-
end of scattered. Over the weekend and early part of next week, the
probability chance of showers is expected to hover around the line
between isolated and scattered.

Kosrae is expected to see a wave pattern for its weather this week.
Currently, it is at the high-end of scattered showers and is
expected to drop over the next 36 hours or so. Then, high-end
scattered to low-end numerous showers are anticipated to move in for
the end of the work week. Finally, for the weekend and early next
week, showers are expected diminish and hover around the
isolated/scattered line.

Pohnpei is expected to have an increase in showers through Thursday
and slowly diminish over Friday. By Friday night, Pohnpei will likely
drop and hover around the isolated/scattered line. It looks to
remain there for the weekend and early next week.

Seas are fairly benign for the forecast period. Swells are expected
to remain between 3 and 5 feet, and winds are expected to be gentle
to moderate.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Today, satellite imagery showed scattered showers over Palau,
scattered showers dropping to isolated showers over Yap, and
numerous showers over Chuuk. Seas over most of the region remain
fairly benign expect where the larger cells of convection were at,
these locations had a bit rougher seas.

Chuuk looked to be getting the worst of the showers today as a large
cell past over them. This cell forced an update to the forecast to
bring the Probability of Precipitation up to numerous for today and
tonight. Showers are expected to remain scattered for the rest of the
work week. For the weekend, showers will drop to slight chance then
pick back up to chance for the latter half of the weekend and early
next week.

Yap looked to get off the easiest with showers today. The tail end of
a passing trough brought some showers to the island. Currently,
satellite imagery shows convection popping up all around Yap Proper`s
waters, but just cloudy over the Yap Proper and their waters. For
the rest of the work week, scattered showers will likely reign over
the region. Over the weekend, Yap looks to be drying out again with
some fair weather. For the beginning of next week, showers look to be
on the rise again.

Palau was in the middle one for showers today. Scattered showers are
expected through the beginning part of next week. There is a weak
circulation that is pulling shower in to the area combined with a
weak monsoon-like flow being injected, make for a wet outlook. This
cluster of features is moving slowly towards the Phillipines.

Seas are fairly benign for the forecast period. Swells are expected
to remain between 3 and 5 feet, and winds are expected to be light
to gentle.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Marianas: Slagle
Micronesia: Bowsher