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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
659 FXPQ50 PGUM 160740 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 540 PM ChST Tue Jul 16 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen skirting near and southeast of Guam as a surface trough approaches the Marianas. Additional showers will arrive from the southeast along the southern edge of an outflow boundary, with the arrival of gusty, convergent winds overnight through the next few days. && .Discussion... A Hydrologic Outlook for heavy rainfall has been issued for the latter half of this week as a wet pattern sets up across the Marianas. An area of surface troughing and deep convection near 6.5N, 160E looks to move northwest and develop over the area by Thursday as the monsoon trough pushes north, greatly increasing rainfall potential for several days. This potential may be enhanced by the positioning and interaction with a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT). Locally heavy rainfall will be likely through Friday, with diminished rainfall chances continuing through the weekend. The GFS model aggressively wants to develop the passing disturbance as a strengthening circulation come Sunday as it shifts northwest of the Marianas, which we will be keeping a close eye on. && .Marine/Surf... Moderate to fresh winds are expected this week with occasional near gale gusts near showers starting Thursday. Seas of 4 to 6 feet for tonight will become 5 to 8 feet and choppy at times with an arriving westerly swell. A trough approaching from the southeast will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially late Wednesday night through Friday. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along east facing reefs. A moderate risk of rip currents may develop along south and west facing reefs later this week. There will also be a moderate risk of lightning through Sunday night. Surf along west and south facing reefs may build 1 to 3 feet higher later this week with southwest swell. && .Hydrology... An ESF/Hydrologic Outlook was issued for heavy rain threat on Thursday and Friday. A surface troughing pattern will be arriving from the southeast and developing over the Mariana Islands this week. Computer model guidance indicates 3 to 5 inches of rainfall should be expected on Thursday and Friday, with locally higher amounts likely. Rain showers will likely linger through Saturday into Sunday with additional rainfall accumulations. && .Eastern Micronesia... Active weather pattern across eastern Micronesia over the next few days with an ITCZ meandering and transitioning at times to more of a zone of trade convergence. In addition, a trade-wind surge continues to push into the region and enhance convergence. A disturbance along the leading edge of the surge is currently pushing through Kosrae and into Pohnpei and bringing heavy downpours, thunderstorms and gusty winds. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms expected through at least Thursday. The trade convergence zone looks to fragment into a series of troughs by Friday into the weekend. This pattern will still support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region, but showers will start to cluster more around troughs passing through the convergence zone. The trade-wind surge is bringing gentle to moderate winds for Pohnpei and Kosrae, with moderate to fresh winds for Majuro. Fresh to strong gusts possible within the surge and with heavy showers. Gusts up to near-gale possible for Majuro waters. The higher wind waves and elevated trade swell and also creating seas of 7 to 10 feet, and have issued a Small Craft Advisory through Wednesday afternoon. Lower seas in the 5 to 7 foot range for Pohnpei and Kosrae as the trade swell is diminished west of the Marshall Islands, although high enough to warrant a High Surf Advisory along east reefs of Kosrae through Wednesday afternoon. The gradient will weaken and the trade- wind surge and swell will diminish by late week. Seas look to lower to 3 to 5 feet for Pohnpei and Kosrae and 4 to 6 feet for Majuro, with winds becoming light to gentle for Pohnpei and Kosrae and becoming gentle to moderate for Majuro. && .Western Micronesia... The monsoon trough passes through JTWC`s Invest 91W near the Phillipines, centered around 9N128E, and continues east-southeast across the main islands of Palau and southern Yap State, ending near Chuuk. Unsettled weather across the region is induced by monsoon west-southwesterly flow, that stretches across Palau, colliding with the trade-wind pattern across Yap and Chuuk. Scatterometry data reveals a pocket of diffluent flow that lead to suppressed shower activity over Yap today, however this lull is short-lived with the overall active pattern in the area. The gradual north to northwest shift of the monsoon trough is expected to maintain showery monsoon weather with gusty winds and heavy showers at times through Thursday for Palau and Yap. Farther west near Chuuk, a disturbance within the ITCZ is expected to reach the island Wednesday and Wednesday night, bringing heavier convection to the area. For the remainder of the week, an ITCZ pattern remains across eastern and central Micronesia, possibly fragmenting late in the week. Even so, trade-wind troughs propagating from eastern Micronesia are still expected to bring periods of showery weather. Altimetry and scatterometry data show seas of 3 to 5 feet and light to moderate winds. However, localized effects of heavier showers will still lead to choppy seas at times across Palau and Yap over the next few days, and possibly for Chuuk sometime Wednesday with a passing disturbance. Southwest to west winds and swell in far western Micronesia will further develop, allowing for seas to build up to 6 feet around Wednesday or Thursday, especially for Palau, while seas near Chuuk look to stay between 4 and 6 feet. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Simpson/DeCou Micronesia: Cruz/Slagle