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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
743 FXPQ50 PGUM 120740 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 540 PM ChST Fri Jul 12 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite shows partly to mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers across the region, as well as thunderstorm activity within and east of Guam`s coastal waters this afternoon. Some cells have collapsed and sent some outflow boundaries over land, but the shower complex has stayed off to the east for the most part. Ritidian and Tanapag buoys indicate combined seas of 2 to 4 feet. && .Discussion... A tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) cell is now overhead, and has been responsible for the thunderstorm activity as of late. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue through Saturday as this TUTT cell eventually drifts to the northwest and weak trade-wind troughs move along at the surface. Another trough looks to pass through Sunday night before a moist, troughing pattern moves in from the south by Tuesday, bringing unsettled weather through late week. && .Marine/Surf... Gentle to moderate winds are expected through the middle of next week. Seas of 2 to 4 feet build to 4 to 6 feet by Sunday in response to an increase in trade swell and winds. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along east facing reefs, with a low risk along other reefs. Similar to combined seas, surf along east facing reefs is also expected to increase slightly by Sunday. && .Eastern Micronesia... Convergent surface winds are focused along 5N to 7N across Pohnpei and Kosrae States and the southern Marshall Islands as the ITCZ has become better developed today. Dry weather continues over the far northern RMI. Models indicate unstable and active weather will continue over Eastern Micronesia thru the next few days, and the moist weather will gradually move towards the west and northwest. Models indicate slightly drier weather will arrive from the east and slowly move westward next week. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet are expected the next couple of days, but increasing winds and waves are expected next week, with combined seas probably 5 to 7 feet across the region next week; even higher winds and waves over the northern parts of the region. && .Western Micronesia... A monsoon trough stretches across Western Micronesia from a weak circulation east of Mindanao at 8N130E, through a second weak circulation southeast of Koror at 5N140E, then east and southeast into southern Chuuk State. Satellite shows heavy showers across the south parts of the trough, and toward the Equator, with patchy areas of showers over Palau and Yap State. Convergent easterly winds still over northern and central Chuuk State are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Models indicate the monsoon trough will continue over the region and it could gradually develop further, so that showery weather will likely persist for this region. Marine conditions will deteriorate somewhat. Southwest to west swell waves and westerly surface winds will further develop during the coming days, especially for Palau. Combined seas are expected to build into the 4 to 6 foot range by next week for Yap and Koror. Also, a moderate flow of easterly trade wind waves will be moving into Chuuk State by next week. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Cruz Micronesia: Simpson