038
FXPQ50 PGUM 130752
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
552 PM ChST Sat Jul 13 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the region this afternoon. An
upper-level trough lingers to the northwest, however thunderstorm
activity has been rather subdued since this morning. Afternoon
satellite imagery shows a line of patchy showers moving in, east of
Guam. Ritidian and Tanapag buoys indicate seas around 3 feet,
steadily increasing.

&&

.Discussion...
A tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) cell has moved northwest
of Saipan and thunderstorm activity has quieted down around Tinian
and Saipan over the course of today. As a precaution, added a slight
chance of thunderstorms for tonight since this feature is still
nearby. Weak troughs in the trade-wind pattern look to bring about
intermittent shower activity Sunday afternoon and evening. Then, a
more robust troughing pattern arrives from the southeast by Tuesday,
bringing unsettled weather through the week.

&&

.Marine...
Gentle to moderate winds are expected over the next few days
becoming moderate to fresh by Wednesday, where inclement weather may
lead to choppier seas and stronger gusts near showers. Seas of 3 to
5 feet tonight build to 5 to 7 feet this week in response to an
increase in trade swell and winds. A moderate risk of rip currents
will continue along east facing reefs, with a low risk along other
reefs. Similar to combined seas, surf along east facing reefs is also
expected to increase a couple of feet. Southwest swell from the
monsoon pattern in western Micronesia is expected to add to surf
heights along west and south facing reefs starting Tuesday.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia including Chuuk...
A moderately strong surface trough along with surging trade winds
are moving across the Marshall Islands today, while a convergent
surface wind pattern is focused along 5N to 6N, east to west from
south of Majuro across Kosrae and Pohnpei States to southeast of
Chuuk. Also, diffluent flow aloft is helping to trigger areas of
heavier showers and thunderstorms.

Models indicate the surface trough will edge slowly west to west-
northwest in the coming days so showery weather will continue
over the region most of this week. Models also indicate a little
drier weather will follow behind the surface trough later in the
coming week.

Combined seas of 5 to 7 feet are expected to spread across the
region, with seas 6 to 8 feet for the Majuro area; probably higher
at times over northern parts of the region. Of course, winds and
seas will be locally higher near-and-in the showery weather.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Yap and Palau...
The monsoon trough runs across Western Micronesia from Mindanao
across 9N130E to between Koror and Yap, then curving southeast
into a weak circulation southwest of Chuuk near 3N150E. Moderate
to locally fresh monsoonal flow has developed over Palau, and the
trough is edging north toward Yap. Models indicate this monsoonal
pattern will persist over the region, and the weak circulation
southwest of Chuuk, embedded in the trough, will probably move
slowly toward northwest in the coming days. Unsettled weather is
expected for Western Micronesia through most of this week, with
possibly some improvement by Friday or Saturday.

Marine conditions have deteriorated for Palau and will deteriorate
for Yap state in the coming days. Southwest to west swell waves
and westerly surface winds will further develop in the coming
days, especially for Palau. Combined seas are expected to build
into the 5 to 7 foot range for Palau and possibly for Yap during
the next couple of days. Ngaraard, Babeldaob Buoy only shows seas
around 3 feet, but it`s shielded from westerly waves.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Cruz
Micronesia: Simpson