541
FXUS62 KGSP 091044
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
644 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A hot and humid air mass remains in place across the region
today. A cold front associated with the remnants of Beryl will
usher in drier air Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture gradually
returns Friday into the weekend, bringing an increase in afternoon
and evening showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM Update...The morning fcst is in good shape. Seeing isol
spots of dense fog as expected across the Little TN River Valley.
This fog will persist before breaking up arnd 14z.

A good amount of mid and upper clouds continue across the FA this
morning, which will help curtail a dense fog threat. The NC mtn
valleys will have the best chance for fog and low StCu thru
daybreak. The HRRR and NBM output is showing a signal for quite low
StCu across the ern Piedmont including the CLT area, so this was
added in the grids for aviation purposes.

Another above normal temperature day on tap as upper ridging
dominates the pattern. Surface dewpoints were mixed up to arnd 800
mb, which lowered values a few degrees beginning arnd 17z. However,
with weak llvl moist adv continuing still have HI values abv 105 F
for many areas east of the mtns. Thus, have issued a Heat Advisory
generally from portions of NE GA thru the NW NC Piedmont this
afternoon and evening. Convective chances this afternoon have gone
down since the previous fcst. The overall environment is not
supportive of widespread convec activity nor severe tstm
development. The upper ridge and warm mid levels will keep sbCAPE in
the low category, while weak shear continues thru a deep layer.
Soundings show a little inhibition persisting arnd the LCLs/LFCs and
with no good triggers, thunderstorm development will likely remain
spotty outside the mtns in areas of better sfc diff heating. The
mtns will have a better chance due to ridgetop convg, but PoPs have
still been lowered into the low-mid chance range. Lows tonight will
once again remain arnd 5-7 degrees abv normal and may break daily
high min records at KAVL and KCLT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...A cold front associated with the
remnants of T.C. Beryl will cross the forecast area from the west
early Wednesday, ushering in a pronounced dry slot into the area,
as the center of Beryl crosses the Ohio Valley. The National Blend
of Models has been quite slow on picking up on this trend, as the
latest model consensus is in good agreement on the drier air. So
have bumped PoPs and dewpts down significantly for Wednesday
and Thursday. Despite a "fropa", max temps will remain near to
slightly above normal. Fortunately, with dewpts falling into
the 60s, it will not feel as humid. The air may be dry enough to
pretty much preclude deep convection. Although, Wednesday is sort
of a transition day, with perhaps some added lift from the fropa,
for a few thunderstorms, especially along and east of the I-77
corridor. Lows will be near normal thanks to the lower dewpts
mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...An upper trough in the wake of the
remnants of Beryl will gradually fill in, as large western Atlantic
ridge nudges west into the Southeastern US. A stalled frontal
boundary along the Coastal Plain will begin to drift inland, and
bring low-level moisture back into the forecast area on Friday. The
deepest convection associated with that front will likely stay to
our east on Friday, but some return of typical mid-summer diurnal
PoPs seems reasonable. The front washes out over the weekend,
leaving a typical subtropical air mass across the region. Overall,
temps will be a few degrees above normal with a return of upper
60s to lower 70s dewpts and climo PoPs are expected over the
weekend. Another upper trough digs into the eastern CONUS Monday
and Tuesday, which may bring a slightly drier NWLY flow across the
region. But there will probably still be some diurnal convection
both days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conds with upper level clouds and calm
winds to begin the TAF period. Most sites will remain VFR thru the
morning hours, however, KAVL and KHKY could see VSBY/CIGS drop to
IFR or lower before daybreak, with improving conds back to VFR by
14z-15z. KCLT may see MVFR CIGS by daybreak and have maintained
mention btw 09s and 15z. Also have included an IFR non-CIG at KCLT
as some models suggest the possibility of quite low CIGS in the
area. Thunderstorm coverage is suspect this afternoon as soundings
and plan views showing a suppressive atmos allowing mainly isol
activity across the non-mtns and low chance at KAVL. Will address
and may remove the going PROB30 TSRA at most sites including KCLT
with the 12z TAF issuance. Winds remain relatively weak generally
under 8 kts and align sse/ly to sw/ly across entire fcst area.

Outlook: An active summertime pattern continues for most of the
week, leading to showers/thunderstorms and possible
restrictionsFM091400 19004KT P6SM SCT250 each afternoon/evening. Fog
or low stratus may develop each morning, especially over areas that
received rain the previous day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ026-028-029.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ037-057-070>072-082.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ008>014-019-107-109.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...SBK