132
FXUS62 KGSP 100722
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
322 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front associated with the remnants of Beryl will usher
in drier air today through Thursday. Moisture gradually returns
Friday into the weekend, bringing an increase in afternoon and
evening showers and storms. Typical mid-summer temperatures and
daily isolated to scattered storms expected early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The latest mesoanalysis shows the remnants of TC Beryl still
affecting the area. Winds have remained elevated in a tighter than
normal p/grad and this will help limit a morning dense fog threat,
except perhaps across the sheltered sw/rn NC mtn valleys. Current
radar loop shows a distinct line with a frontal bndry associated
with the sfc low approaching the wrn NC mtns and this will cross the
area during the day. This bndry will have little dyno support and no
sigfnt moisture source, so expect a mostly dry passage. All the
guidance has trended much drier in the llvls ahead of and behind
this feature with the latest NAM mixed td/s now lowering into the
u60s by 18z across the far ern zones. Considering above normal max
temps arnd 20z and relatively deep mixing by that time, have lowered
td/s from the previous fcst by a cat or so. This still produces HI
values at 105 degrees across the ern third of Union Co NC, but will
not go with a heat advisory as even considering a perfect prog the
areal coverage is too low and confidence is not there for a product.
Afternoon convection will be limited if at all. If something does
get going ahead of the bndry, it will be short lived and likely no
thunder. So, have reduced PoPs to slight across the nrn zones where
the better lift will occur. Mins tonight will finally go back to or
just below normal after a week of record breaking high mins at one
climo site or another.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...Dry air will remain over the forecast
area on Thursday, with sfc dewpts dipping into the 50s to lower
60s in the aftn. This should basically preclude any deep convection
and also give us a break from the elevated heat indices. Highs will
still be a category or so above normal under mostly sunny skies.

A stalled frontal boundary draped roughly along the East Coast will
begin to nudge back inland Thursday night into Friday, as a sfc wave
develops invof the SC coast. SELY flow should spread some moisture
back into the forecast area and bring a return of at least chc
PoPs across the eastern third of the area by Friday aftn. With an
inverted trough setup, the strongest convection and heaviest precip
potential should remain on the east side of the axis. Although
the NAM does develop a stronger wave over central SC and hints at
some heavier precip reaching the I-77 corridor. Either way, the
western half of the forecast area will be mostly dry with continued
above normal temps, while the east will be near to slightly below
normal with likely PoPs. Lows will be near normal Thursday night,
and a deg or two warmer Friday night under more cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...A weak sfc boundary draped across
the Carolinas should wash out over the weekend, while mid-level
ridging remains in place atop the region. Low-level flow will be
mostly out of the west or northwest heading into next week, which
will help keep dewpts/heat indices in check. But temps are expected
to return to the mid to upper 90s by the middle of next week. The
latest National blend of Models shows near climo PoPs each day
thru the medium range, which lines up with the deterministic models.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Winds are remaining elevated this morning
across all TAF sites due to a cyclonic p/grad arnd the remnants of
TC Beryl. Expect good sfc mixing to continue at most sites which
will stave off a dense fog threat, except perhaps at KHKY, where a
lull may allow for MVFR VSBY arnd daybreak for a few hours. A weak
frontal zone associated with this system will work across the area
this afternoon and become mostly dry with perhaps isol showers near
KHKY and KCLT. However, no VC is mentioned due to uncertainty at
this time. Low-end gusts likely generate ahead of the bndry and with
it/s passage during the afternoon into the evening as sw/ly flow
shifts nw/ly by the latter period outside the mtns. Winds at KAVL
will remain aligned sw/ly then possibly shift w/ly by mid-day before
swinging nw/ly arnd 23z.

Outlook: Mostly dry conds continue Thu before sigfnt moisture
returns Fri thru the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase along with associated flight restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...SBK