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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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553 FXUS62 KGSP 101128 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 728 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front associated with the remnants of Beryl will usher in drier air today through Thursday. Moisture gradually returns Friday into the weekend, bringing an increase in afternoon and evening showers and storms. Typical mid-summer temperatures and daily isolated to scattered storms expected early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 AM Update...The fcst is in good shape and made only minor adj/s. Morning lows will remain well abv normal due to good sfc mixing and passing upper clouds. In fact, KAVL, KGSP, and KCLT are currently warmer and may break or tie records for high mins on this date. The latest mesoanalysis shows the remnants of TC Beryl still affecting the area. Winds have remained elevated in a tighter than normal p/grad and this will help limit a morning dense fog threat, except perhaps across the sheltered sw/rn NC mtn valleys. Current radar loop shows a distinct line with a frontal bndry associated with the sfc low approaching the wrn NC mtns and this will cross the area during the day. This bndry will have little dyno support and no sigfnt moisture source, so expect a mostly dry passage. All the guidance has trended much drier in the llvls ahead of and behind this feature with the latest NAM mixed td/s now lowering into the u60s by 18z across the far ern zones. Considering above normal max temps arnd 20z and relatively deep mixing by that time, have lowered td/s from the previous fcst by a cat or so. This still produces HI values at 105 degrees across the ern third of Union Co NC, but will not go with a heat advisory as even considering a perfect prog the areal coverage is too low and confidence is not there for a product. Afternoon convection will be limited if at all. If something does get going ahead of the bndry, it will be short lived and likely no thunder. So, have reduced PoPs to slight across the nrn zones where the better lift will occur. Mins tonight will finally go back to or just below normal after a week of record breaking high mins at one climo site or another. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...Dry air will remain over the forecast area on Thursday, with sfc dewpts dipping into the 50s to lower 60s in the aftn. This should basically preclude any deep convection and also give us a break from the elevated heat indices. Highs will still be a category or so above normal under mostly sunny skies. A stalled frontal boundary draped roughly along the East Coast will begin to nudge back inland Thursday night into Friday, as a sfc wave develops invof the SC coast. SELY flow should spread some moisture back into the forecast area and bring a return of at least chc PoPs across the eastern third of the area by Friday aftn. With an inverted trough setup, the strongest convection and heaviest precip potential should remain on the east side of the axis. Although the NAM does develop a stronger wave over central SC and hints at some heavier precip reaching the I-77 corridor. Either way, the western half of the forecast area will be mostly dry with continued above normal temps, while the east will be near to slightly below normal with likely PoPs. Lows will be near normal Thursday night, and a deg or two warmer Friday night under more cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...A weak sfc boundary draped across the Carolinas should wash out over the weekend, while mid-level ridging remains in place atop the region. Low-level flow will be mostly out of the west or northwest heading into next week, which will help keep dewpts/heat indices in check. But temps are expected to return to the mid to upper 90s by the middle of next week. The latest National blend of Models shows near climo PoPs each day thru the medium range, which lines up with the deterministic models. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Winds are remaining elevated this morning across all TAF sites due to a cyclonic p/grad arnd the remnants of TC Beryl. Expect good sfc mixing to continue at most sites which will stave off a dense fog threat, except perhaps at KHKY, where a lull may allow for MVFR VSBY arnd daybreak for a few hours. A weak frontal zone associated with this system will work across the area this afternoon and become mostly dry with perhaps isol showers near KHKY and KCLT. However, no VC is mentioned due to uncertainty at this time. Low-end gusts likely generate ahead of the bndry and with it/s passage during the afternoon into the evening as sw/ly flow shifts nw/ly by the latter period outside the mtns. Winds at KAVL will remain aligned sw/ly then possibly shift w/ly by mid-day before swinging nw/ly arnd 23z. Outlook: Mostly dry conds continue Thu before sigfnt moisture returns Fri thru the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase along with associated flight restrictions. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARK NEAR TERM...SBK SHORT TERM...ARK LONG TERM...ARK AVIATION...SBK