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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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278 FXUS62 KGSP 101850 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 250 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front associated with the remnants of Beryl will usher in drier air through Thursday. Moisture gradually returns Friday into the weekend, bringing an increase in afternoon and evening showers and storms. Typical mid-summer temperatures and daily isolated to scattered storms expected early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 217 PM EDT Wednesday: A weakening cold front is exiting the NC mountains at this point, leaving zones to its west stabilized and zones to its east still warm, moist, and unstable. Satellite imagery depicts a growing field of cumulus east of the boundary, but with little to no vertical development even along the direct frontal circulation. Temperatures, meanwhile, have surged into the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the area, allowing the heat index to climb into the upper 90s, especially across the I-77 corridor, as we barrel toward peak afternoon heating. It`s possible that we could get a few showers out of the NC Foothills as the front continues its march eastward, as the atmosphere is unstable enough that it really shouldn`t take much to set something off. But given how warm the midlevels are, it`s debatable whether charge separation will even be possible, and even run-of-the-mill thunder chances look very low. Dewpoints will crash behind the front as drier high pressure settles in, and skies should clear out tonight and permit lows to fall to around normal, perhaps even a degree or two below. Thursday will be another clear, dry day. Dewpoints are expected to drop into at least the low 60s, or even upper 50s based on some drier ensemble guidance, and in a suppressed environment...so Thursday will be a beautiful day albeit with above-normal temperatures once again hitting the low to mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 223 PM Wednesday...The short term forecast starts off tomorrow night with a shortwave trough draped across the Mississippi Valley and a stout upper ridge off the coast of New England. A closed upper low associated with a tropical upper tropospheric trough is also progged to be sandwiched between these two features and situated just off the coast of the Carolinas. At the surface, the cold front pushing across the area today is forecast to stall over the Coastal Plain with a pronounced coastal baroclinic zone extending down the coast towards northern Florida. Periods of convection along the coast and just offshore will help to instigate a mesolow which guidance further deepens into a weak tropical low along the coast by tomorrow night. An attendant inverted surface trough will also extend across the Coastal Plain and help to focus showers and thunderstorms within a deep tropical moisture plume. Heading through the overnight, upper height gradient will increase between the shortwave trough lifting across the Ohio Valley and the offshore ridge. This will in turn strengthen onshore flow and help to push the stalled frontal boundary back west. Dewpoints are expected to surge back into the low to mid 70s across far eastern portions into the I-77 corridor as the frontal boundary retrogrades. The return of deep moisture will also be accompanied by an uptick in coverage of showers heading into the predawn hours Friday morning. How far west the front retreats remains uncertain with most guidance keeping deeper moisture confined to the I-77 corridor through the day Friday. Thus, will keep the highest PoPs focused here with only chance to slight chance elsewhere. Little to no convection is expected west of the boundary in the drier air, so the placement of the front will be key as to who ultimately gets in on some much needed rainfall. By Saturday, surface features to help focus convection become much more nebulous with the weak low filling beneath convergent upper flow and any inverted trough hard to depict. Thus, despite the passage of a trough axis to the north, coverage of diurnal convection will be scattered at best. Temperatures Friday will be warm outside of thicker cloud cover along the I-77 corridor with all locations returning to the low 90s on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 244 PM Wednesday...A hot and humid summer pattern returns Sunday into next week as the region becomes situated south of a broad trough extending from the Northern Plains into New England. Upper ridging is forecast to build into the area from the Southern Plains with warming low-level temperatures and at least weak onshore flow from the Gulf/Atlantic helping to maintain moist upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints. Temperatures will climb back into the mid 90s on Sunday with mid to upper 90s Monday into Wednesday. This will in turn foster oppressive humidity with heat indices in the low 100s. Heat advisories are not out of the question, especially by mid week. As for convection, a lack of forcing from both synoptic/mesoscale features will greatly limit coverage each day to isolated/scattered. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: A quiet VFR TAF period is on tap for the entire terminal forecast area. A weak and mostly-dry cold front is making tracks into the NC foothills circa 1730z and ushering in cooler, drier air into the region. The environment`s not quite capped, but it`s also not exactly ripe for convection, so while some isolated showers can`t be ruled out along the I-40 corridor and the NC I-77 zones, confidence is low. 15-20kt gusts out of the SW are expected as the afternoon wears on and the frontal zone passes us by...afterward, winds should die down and any FEW/SCT mid-level cloud bases will dissipate, giving way to FEW/SKC and a steady NW wind overnight. Winds will stay elevated enough to preclude any chance of morning fog/low stratus at any of the TAF sites...although areas of the Little Tennessee Valley could see some patchy fog around daybreak. Expect another few to scattered cu field to break out Thursday afternoon, but not even isolated showers are expected. Outlook: Moisture will begin to filter back in from the southeast on Thursday night, resulting in increasing clouds and rain chances by Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase into the weekend, along with associated flight restrictions. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...TW LONG TERM...TW AVIATION...MPR