980
FXUS62 KGSP 102347
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
747 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front associated with the remnants of Beryl will usher
in drier air through Thursday. Moisture gradually returns Friday
into the weekend, bringing an increase in afternoon and evening
showers and storms. Typical mid-summer temperatures and daily
isolated to scattered storms expected early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 5:15 PM EDT Wednesday: The cold front is currently making
its way over our NC Piedmont zones and is generating a few light
showers over Iredell and Davie counties. Otherwise, we are dry
across our area with winds behind the front out of the NW with
some low-end gusts being reported over the NC mtns. We`ve still
got some decent sfc-based instability ahead of the front over
our eastern-most zones, so we may see some convection initiate
over the I-77 corridor over the next few hrs, but it will likely
be short-lived. Dewpts will continue to drop behind the front as
drier high pressure settles in and skies should clear tonight
and permit lows to fall to near-normal, perhaps even a degree
or two below.

Otherwise, Thursday will be another clear, dry day. Dewpts are
expected to drop into at least the low 60s, or even upper 50s
based on some drier ensemble guidance, and in a suppressed en-
vironment, so Thurs will be a beautiful day albeit with above-
normal temperatures once again hitting the low to mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 223 PM Wednesday...The short term forecast starts off tomorrow
night with a shortwave trough draped across the Mississippi Valley
and a stout upper ridge off the coast of New England. A closed upper
low associated with a tropical upper tropospheric trough is also
progged to be sandwiched between these two features and situated
just off the coast of the Carolinas. At the surface, the cold front
pushing across the area today is forecast to stall over the Coastal
Plain with a pronounced coastal baroclinic zone extending down the
coast towards northern Florida. Periods of convection along the
coast and just offshore will help to instigate a mesolow which
guidance further deepens into a weak tropical low along the coast by
tomorrow night. An attendant inverted surface trough will also
extend across the Coastal Plain and help to focus showers and
thunderstorms within a deep tropical moisture plume. Heading through
the overnight, upper height gradient will increase between the
shortwave trough lifting across the Ohio Valley and the offshore
ridge. This will in turn strengthen onshore flow and help to push
the stalled frontal boundary back west. Dewpoints are expected to
surge back into the low to mid 70s across far eastern portions into
the I-77 corridor as the frontal boundary retrogrades. The return of
deep moisture will also be accompanied by an uptick in coverage of
showers heading into the predawn hours Friday morning. How far west
the front retreats remains uncertain with most guidance keeping
deeper moisture confined to the I-77 corridor through the day
Friday. Thus, will keep the highest PoPs focused here with only
chance to slight chance elsewhere. Little to no convection is
expected west of the boundary in the drier air, so the placement of
the front will be key as to who ultimately gets in on some much
needed rainfall.

By Saturday, surface features to help focus convection become much
more nebulous with the weak low filling beneath convergent upper
flow and any inverted trough hard to depict. Thus, despite the
passage of a trough axis to the north, coverage of diurnal convection
will be scattered at best. Temperatures Friday will be warm outside
of thicker cloud cover along the I-77 corridor with all locations
returning to the low 90s on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 244 PM Wednesday...A hot and humid summer pattern returns
Sunday into next week as the region becomes situated south of a
broad trough extending from the Northern Plains into New England.
Upper ridging is forecast to build into the area from the Southern
Plains with warming low-level temperatures and at least weak onshore
flow from the Gulf/Atlantic helping to maintain moist upper 60s to
low 70s dewpoints. Temperatures will climb back into the mid 90s on
Sunday with mid to upper 90s Monday into Wednesday. This will in
turn foster oppressive humidity with heat indices in the low 100s.
Heat advisories are not out of the question, especially by mid week.
As for convection, a lack of forcing from both synoptic/mesoscale
features will greatly limit coverage each day to isolated/scattered.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to prevail thru
the 00z taf period at all terminals. A weak and mostly dry cold
front is gradually making its way eastward over our eastern zones
and should be east of our fcst area within a couple of hrs. The
rest of the period should be dry with few to sct VFR clouds. Winds
at KCLT are expected to go north of west by roughly 00z and continue
to veer around to NE by late tomorrow morning. They will remain NELY
for the rest of the day/evening. At KAVL, winds will remain N to
NWLY thru the taf period. They will likely remain gusty thru the
overnight but should lose their gusts by sunrise. At the Upstate
sites, winds will remain NWLY thru the overnight and into the mor-
ning. They should go NE by late morning and stay that way for the
rest of the day. With the drier air spreading over the area and the
lingering gusts, it`s unlikely that any fog/low stratus will impact
our taf sites early Thursday.

Outlook: Moisture will begin to filter back in from the southeast
on Thursday night, resulting in increasing clouds and rain chances
by Friday. Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances will increase
into the weekend, along with associated flight restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT/MPR
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...JPT