201
FXUS62 KGSP 110532
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
132 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front associated with the remnants of Beryl will usher
in drier air through Thursday. Moisture gradually returns Friday
into the weekend, bringing an increase in afternoon and evening
showers and storms. Typical mid-summer temperatures and daily
isolated to scattered storms expected early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM Update...The fcst remains in good shape this morning. No
sigfnt changes were made in the grids.

As of 10:15 PM EDT Wednesday: The front is now well to our east
with winds out of the NW at most of the our reporting sites. As
expected, we`re still seeing some low-end gusts over the NC mtns
and into the foothills and they could linger into Thurs morning.
Outside the mtns, winds should weaken overnight and continue to
favor a N to NW direction. Dewpts will continue to drop behind
the front as drier high pressure settles in. This should allow
temps to bottom-out near-normal across our CWA, if not a few
degrees below normal over the mtns.

Otherwise, upper trofing will amplify over the Great Lakes on
Thursday but remain to our NW as broad upper ridging remains
in place to our east. At the sfc, what`s left of the weak cold
front will stall out just to our east as weak high pressure
lingers over our fcst area. The operational models continue
to develop a weak low just off the SE Coast on Thursday and
then slowly move it onshore towards the end of the near-term
period early Friday. This results in the low-lvl flow becoming
more ELY and deeper moisture spreading back over our eastern
zones by the end of the period early Fri. Nonetheless, in the
wake of the front, we can expect a sunny and dry Thurs with
dewpts in the low 60s across most of the lower terrain and 50s
to low 60s over the mtns. High temperatures are still expected
to climb a degree or 2 above normal for mid-July.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 223 PM Wednesday...The short term forecast starts off tomorrow
night with a shortwave trough draped across the Mississippi Valley
and a stout upper ridge off the coast of New England. A closed upper
low associated with a tropical upper tropospheric trough is also
progged to be sandwiched between these two features and situated
just off the coast of the Carolinas. At the surface, the cold front
pushing across the area today is forecast to stall over the Coastal
Plain with a pronounced coastal baroclinic zone extending down the
coast towards northern Florida. Periods of convection along the
coast and just offshore will help to instigate a mesolow which
guidance further deepens into a weak tropical low along the coast by
tomorrow night. An attendant inverted surface trough will also
extend across the Coastal Plain and help to focus showers and
thunderstorms within a deep tropical moisture plume. Heading through
the overnight, upper height gradient will increase between the
shortwave trough lifting across the Ohio Valley and the offshore
ridge. This will in turn strengthen onshore flow and help to push
the stalled frontal boundary back west. Dewpoints are expected to
surge back into the low to mid 70s across far eastern portions into
the I-77 corridor as the frontal boundary retrogrades. The return of
deep moisture will also be accompanied by an uptick in coverage of
showers heading into the predawn hours Friday morning. How far west
the front retreats remains uncertain with most guidance keeping
deeper moisture confined to the I-77 corridor through the day
Friday. Thus, will keep the highest PoPs focused here with only
chance to slight chance elsewhere. Little to no convection is
expected west of the boundary in the drier air, so the placement of
the front will be key as to who ultimately gets in on some much
needed rainfall.

By Saturday, surface features to help focus convection become much
more nebulous with the weak low filling beneath convergent upper
flow and any inverted trough hard to depict. Thus, despite the
passage of a trough axis to the north, coverage of diurnal convection
will be scattered at best. Temperatures Friday will be warm outside
of thicker cloud cover along the I-77 corridor with all locations
returning to the low 90s on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 244 PM Wednesday...A hot and humid summer pattern returns
Sunday into next week as the region becomes situated south of a
broad trough extending from the Northern Plains into New England.
Upper ridging is forecast to build into the area from the Southern
Plains with warming low-level temperatures and at least weak onshore
flow from the Gulf/Atlantic helping to maintain moist upper 60s to
low 70s dewpoints. Temperatures will climb back into the mid 90s on
Sunday with mid to upper 90s Monday into Wednesday. This will in
turn foster oppressive humidity with heat indices in the low 100s.
Heat advisories are not out of the question, especially by mid week.
As for convection, a lack of forcing from both synoptic/mesoscale
features will greatly limit coverage each day to isolated/scattered.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conds thru the period across all
TAF sitess. Dry hipres will continue to work in from the northwest
today and veer winds outside the mtns from a n/ly direction this
morning to more of a nne/ly to ne/ly flow during the afternoon and
evening. KAVL winds will likely remain aligned nw/ly thru the period
with low-end gusts persisting thru mid morning. KCLT could also see
ne/ly gusts aft the inversion break for a few hours, mainly btw 15z-
18z. Moisture increases from the east overnight and there`s a low
chance of showers affecting KCLT aft 06z, but confidence is too low
for a TAF mention right now. Showers and MVFR restrictions may be
included during the latter period of the 12z TAF set for KCLT if the
westward precip trends continue.

Outlook: Moisture will filter back in from the southeast tonight,
resulting in increasing chances of rain and flight restriction into
Friday. Diurnal scattered shower and thunderstorms are probable over
the weekend along with associated restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT/SBK
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...SBK