295
FXUS62 KGSP 111553
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1153 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry air mass over the region today will make for relatively
comfortable humidity levels for mid-July. But moisture gradually
returns Friday and through the weekend, bringing an increase in
afternoon and evening showers and storms. Above normal temperatures
and daily isolated to scattered storms are expected through the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1148 AM EDT Thursday...no major changes again as the clock
strikes noon.  Dewpoints across the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate
have fallen into the 50s, with the exception of areas near the
Savannah River and Catawba River, which remain a little moister.
Winds have turned slightly E of N, but the overall influence of
dry air remains the same.

So...dry air is maintained thru a deep layer today and little
moisture will be available at LCL levels, but probably just enuf
for few/sct fair-wx Cu. A strong subs inversion noted on area
soundings will combine with good insol and allow max temps to
reach normal levels. It will be warm but feel rather nice this
afternoon as low sfc td/s are supported by nw/ly to ne/ly flow,
which will hold RH values in the 30% range. The latest guidance
has slowed the progression of a moist inverted trof moving in
from the Atl coast overnight as the Bermuda High has centered
more northeast. The op models and the hires windows have caught
on to the associated lack of synoptic steering and bring quite
a bit less moisture to the far ern zones by 12z. Thus, have cut
back the going PoPs aft 06z to slight and removed all mention of
thunder. Lows tonight will continue with near normal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...The pleasant dewpts/lower humidity will
be short-lived, as moisture begins to work back into the forecast
area from the east. This will be in part due to a weak wave forming
along a stalled front invof the SC coast early Friday. An inverted
trough north of this wave will cross central NC during the day
and should trigger convection that approaches the I-77 corridor in
the aftn. As such, will feature likely PoPs east of I-77. Further
west, dry air will try to hold on, and only isolated convection
is expected west of roughly the I-26 corridor. Temps will be held
closer to normal in the east thanks to the moisture and cloud cover,
while above normal highs expected in the western zones. Severe
storms seem unlikely with this activity, but locally heavy rain
will be possible in the eastern zones.

The sfc wave is expected to lift north along the frontal zone to
our east Friday night thru Saturday, bringing flow around out of
the NW and generally drying out the forecast area. There looks to
be enough CAPE for at least isolated to widely scattered mountain
convection, while the Piedmont might remain largely dry thanks
to some downslope flow. Highs will be a few degrees above normal
with heat indices getting into the upper 90s to lower 100s (but
not expected to reach 105). Lows will be near normal Friday night,
but slightly warmer Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...Upper ridging will gradually build in
from the Southern Plains, as a persistent broad longwave trough
weakens over the Great Lakes to the East Coast. The latest medium
range guidance suggests a hot pattern with above normal temps and
below-climo diurnal convection chances Sunday and Monday. Moisture
begins to increase Tuesday as a front sags south toward the area
and SWLY flow increases around a Bermuda high. PoPs increase to
climo in the mountains Tuesday and above-climo PoPs likely across
the entire area Wednesday. Dewpts may mix out enough to keep heat
indices below 105 Sunday and Monday, but creep up a bit Tuesday
and especially Wednesday, which may warrant a Heat Advisory for
portions of the Piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conds thru the period across all
TAF sitess. Dry hipres will continue to work in from the northwest
today and veer winds outside the mtns from a n/ly direction this
morning to more of a nne/ly to ne/ly flow during the afternoon and
evening. KAVL winds will likely remain aligned nw/ly thru the period
with low-end gusts persisting thru mid morning. KCLT could also see
ne/ly gusts aft the inversion break for a few hours, mainly btw 15z-
18z. Moisture increases from the east overnight and there`s a low
chance of showers affecting KCLT aft 06z, but confidence is too low
for a TAF mention right now. Showers and MVFR restrictions may be
included during the latter period of the 12z TAF set for KCLT if the
westward precip trends continue.

Outlook: Moisture will filter back in from the southeast tonight,
resulting in increasing chances of rain and flight restriction into
Friday. Diurnal scattered shower and thunderstorms are probable over
the weekend along with associated restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...MPR/SBK
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...SBK