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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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747 FXUS62 KGSP 190543 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 143 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A nearly stationary front will meander across our region through early next week providing a focus for above normal chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Another cold front will approach from the north later next week. Temperatures will be near normal or just a bit cooler than normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 140 AM: Isolated showers will move across the area early this morning then dissipate near daybreak. Fog and low clouds expected across much of the area daybreak. Otherwise, broad upper troffing will linger to our north over the Great Lakes while broad upper ridging persists to our west and to our east. At the sfc, Canadian high pressure will linger to our NW while the Bermuda High keeps moist, southerly low-lvl flow to our south. Between these two highs, a weak frontal boundary that is currently draped across our area will slowly move south and east of our CWA this evening. Nonetheless, the deeper moisture associated with the broad region of low-lvl convergence will persist over the Southeast well beyond the near-term period. The drier air to our north, associated with the Canadian high, will make little progress southward over the next few days. For Friday, we can expect another round of sct to widespread convection across our area as we remain under the moist airmass. The model profiles, however, appear less supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms. Thus, our primary threat will likely be localized heavy rainfall and the potential for isolated flooding. As for temperatures, they will trend cooler with highs on Friday expected to remain in the 80s over the lower terrain and 70s over the mtns. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 PM Thursday...A rather stationary pattern will persist over the short range as a strong Canadian high builds south and traps a frontal zone against the Bermuda High. The flow around the subTrop ridge will will allow for very good moist advect each day and cross sections indicate high saturation thru the mid levels. Fri night into Sat may see the best chance for widespread showers and an increased hydro threat as s/w forcing crosses the area. High cloud cover and rather warm mid-levels will limit sbCAPE potential each day as sfc heating and max temps are curtailed a cat or so below normal, yet diff heating will likely allow for more robust and longer lived tstms, possibly leading to a multi-cell mode. The various guidance continues to disagree sigfnt/ly on the location of the sfc convg zone which will be key in the generation and amts of precip each day. Models aren`t too excited about over all precip totals either, but localized areas could see arnd an inch in a short amt of time potentially leading to flood issues depending on where the sfc front interacts more with the stronger updrafts. Training cells with high rainfall rates will also be possible as the mean steering flow aloft aligns parallel with the stationary front thru the period. Pops were maintained quite a bit abv climo each day with lower noctural precip likely continuing each night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 PM Thursday...The ext range fcst remains quite active as the latest guidance continues to show an activated stationary front draped across the area each day. A strong subTrop ridge will hold it/s own against upper energy diving out of Canada and possibly strengthen and shift west by Tue. Decent agreement is seen in the llvl mass fields Mon thru Wed with the GOM wide open for efficient moisture flux each day. This could be a period of increased hydro issues as antecedent water level conds by that time may be quite elevated. A lot will depend on the areas where the front situates as it wafts north and south thru the period, but the latest trends begin to shift the heavy rain focus across the srn BR as the Bermuda High becomes more dominant across the SE region. The going high-end PoPs have been maintained thru the period including abv normal PoPs during the overnight periods. Max temps will likely be held below normal each day by a few degrees while mins remain abv normal. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated SHRA may affect KAVL early this morning, otherwise no impacts expected. The bigger concern will be low stratus and fog. Expect a mix of MVFR to LIFR cigs with VFR to IFR Vsby. Expect MVFR stratocu to linger through the morning at most sites, but coverage is uncertain. This should create a later start to convection this afternoon, but most sites will see TSRA by late afternoon or early evening. SHRA may linger overnight as well with at least MVFR conditions developing. Light winds this morning will become NE at the KHKY and KCLT by afternoon with SW elsewhere Light winds develop during the evening. Outlook: Expect sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms each aftn/evening into early next week. Morning fog/low stratus will be possible each day, especially in the mtn valleys and over areas that received rainfall from the previous day. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...JPT/PM/RWH SHORT TERM...SBK LONG TERM...SBK AVIATION...RWH