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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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924 FXUS63 KGRR 161149 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 749 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Turning cooler and less humid; still a chance of a few showers/storms through Wednesday - Dry and pleasant weather for Thursday through Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 - Turning cooler and less humid; still a chance of a few showers/storms through Wednesday Widespread showers and storms will be exiting to the east early this morning although erratic/gusty winds may occur for the next couple hours in the wake of the departing MCS. The sfc cold front across nrn Lwr MI has been touching off some scattered tstms and some of these will impact areas north of I-96 early this morning. As the cold front continues to sag southward this afternoon some new diurnally enhanced non-severe cells may develop, although coverage should be generally limited to areas near/east of Highway U.S. 127. While these cells will wane/exit with sunset, the approach of the upper trough later tonight could produce additional scattered showers and possibly a tstm. The cold front will bring gradually lowering dew pts after its passage tonight. The H5 upper trough/cold pool sets up overhead on Wednesday and a few showers and storms will remain possible despite cooler temps in the 70s and lower dew pts in 50s behind the cold front. Coverage should be quite limited though and generally limited to areas east of Hwy 131 or possibly just near east of U.S. 127 again. - Dry and pleasant weather for Thursday through Sunday A stretch of dry and pleasant weather is expected for Thursday through the weekend as a sprawling area of sfc high pressure dominates the Great Lakes Region. Highs near 80 and lows in the 50s along with dew pts in the 50s and clear to partly cloudy skies will make for comfortable/pleasant summer weather. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 749 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Numerous IFR cigs are present early this morning but these cigs will scatter out or lift to VFR levels by afternoon. A cold front dropping south through the area this afternoon may trigger a pop up shower or storm, with the main risk being at the LAN and JXN terminals. VFR expected tonight although a mid level cloud deck approaching from the northwest could produce a few light showers or sprinkles during the overnight period. West sfc winds of 10 to 20 knots today will diminish to 5 to 10 kts after 00Z this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Increased westerly flow this morning in the wake of last night`s thunderstorms may produce 2-4 ft waves and a moderate swim risk at west MI beaches this morning. (Latest Port Sheldon buoy ob shows 3.6 ft.) A cold front slides down the lake this afternoon and evening, shifting the winds to the north-northwest. We will likely need a Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard Statement for Wednesday as the winds increase to near 20 kts along the coast in the afternoon. High pressure will dominate the GrtLks Rgn later this week resulting in an extended period of relatively tranquil conditions on Lk MI-- other than the typical afternoon/early evening increased onshore breezes. It`s possible the northerly flow on Wednesday will result in an upwelling event and cooler water temps at the beaches although confidence low at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The areal Flood Watch has been cancelled but Flood Advisories remain in effect along/south of I-94. Also a Flood Warning continues for the Kalamazoo metro area as well as a River Flood Warning for the typically flashy JACM4/Jackson site. The areal headlines will probably be cancelled or allowed to expire by daybreak as heavy rain has ended and water will be receding. Will monitor the JACM4 site to see if it reaches/exceeds flood but either way it should fall quickly below flood stage by later this morning or early this afternoon. A stretch of dry weather is anticipated from mid week through the weekend. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meade AVIATION...Meade MARINE...Meade HYDROLOGY...Meade