Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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449 FXUS63 KGRR 171528 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1128 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and storms today - Fair weather and below normal temps Thursday - Dry pattern continues into next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 1124 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Based on the instability over northern zones at this time, along with some increased low level convergence, I expanded the thunder risk for today. Otherwise I kept the Beach Hazards and Small Craft advisory going. The winds have been increasing over Lake MI and they are expected to increase some more as the pressure gradient tightens up this afternoon and evening. The flow will be from the north northwest and thus the north sides of piers will experience the most impacts this afternoon and evening as the waves build. Water temperatures were in the 70s, so we may see an increased number swimmers in the water during the changing conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 - Isolated showers and storms today A mid to upper level disturbance moving in from the nnw will combine with weak instability from daytime heating and pool of cooler air aloft to bring potential for isolated storms. The relatively best chc for an isolated shower or storm will be over our ne fcst area this aftn where stronger mid to upper level pva will develop. However even there coverage of any pcpn will be rather limited given weak instability and an increasingly drier airmass with nw winds. - Fair weather and below normal temps Thursday The high pressure ridge will build overhead Thursday and bring mostly sunny skies with seasonably cool temps in the lower to middle 70s and mins mainly in the 50s. - Dry pattern continues into next week Stretch of dry/pleasant weather continues through the weekend with comfortable temperatures and humidities. While some weak troughing will exist aloft, the sfc pattern has a large area of high pressure overhead. Highs near 80 and lows in the 50s with partly cloudy skies will be the rule and can`t rule out the possibility of some late- night/early morning shallow fog patches given the light wind regime under the sfc high. While an isolated shower or storm is possible mainly inland from Lk MI Sunday through Tuesday, our next decent chance of rain does not really emerge until the middle or late part of next week when the troughing aloft becomes a bit more pronounced and somewhat higher PWATs return. Even this is far from a sure thing though given general lack of deep layer shear and limited potential for organized systems. Many locations may not see any appreciable rainfall for over a week which is more typical for late July and in contrast to the active/rainy pattern we`ve seen recently. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 735 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight with scattered to broken clouds between 5000 and 10,000 ft. An isolated shower or storm is possible, especially this afternoon at LAN and JXN. Feel the threat of a storm impacting a terminal is too low however to mention thunder in the TAFs. Northwest winds increasing to 10 to 20 kts this afternoon then diminishing to less than 10 kts after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A SCA and beach hazards statement is in effect from noon through early Thursday morning. Northwest winds will increase to around 10 to 20 kts with a few higher gusts as the pressure gradient strengthens a bit in advance of high pressure building into the upper midwest today. Minimal wind speeds and wave heights are forecast Thursday and Friday as the ridge builds over our region. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ037-043-050- 056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...MJS DISCUSSION...Meade/Laurens AVIATION...Meade MARINE...Laurens