442
FXUS63 KGRR 190727
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
327 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny today

- Quiet Weather Weekend, Chance of rain increases after Tuesday


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

- Sunny today

Latest ir loop shows a dearth of clouds extending from Maine west
to the Missouri Valley. High pressure at the surface with an upper
trough to the east will result in abundant sunshine today. We`ll
see highs near 80 and low humidity due to dewpoints in the 50s.

Clear skies and light winds tonight will send temperatures down
into the 50s again. The surface high will remain in place
Saturday, but an upper trough aloft will bring in a few more
afternoon clouds; dry weather is expected.

- Quiet Weather Weekend, Chance of rain increases after Tuesday

Flow regime across the CONUS is dominated by eastern longwave trough
and western upper high/ridging into next week. Surface anticyclone
of Canadian origin persists over the weekend with low humidity and
offers several days of sunshine for saturated ground to dry out.

Good model agreement adds confidence to the forecast of a shortwave
trough diving southeast from Canada and cutting off across the Great
Lakes by Wednesday and this will bring the next chance of showers
and thunderstorms for mid-week. GFS soundings show some potential
for strong storms Wednesday afternoon with deep layer shear of 30
knots and sfc-based instability, so we will watch how this
evolves.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions with light winds through Friday night. The only
exception could be some shallow ground fog early this morning but
the odds of that are low enough to leave out of the forecast
except for JXN where it is more likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Lighter winds are expected today compared to yesterday and marine
hazards are not expected for the next few days.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno/04
AVIATION...Ostuno
MARINE...04