781
FXUS63 KGRR 191708
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
108 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny today

- Quiet Weather Weekend, Chance of rain increases after Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

- Sunny today

Latest ir loop shows a dearth of clouds extending from Maine west
to the Missouri Valley. High pressure at the surface with an upper
trough to the east will result in abundant sunshine today. We`ll
see highs near 80 and low humidity due to dewpoints in the 50s.

Clear skies and light winds tonight will send temperatures down
into the 50s again. The surface high will remain in place
Saturday, but an upper trough aloft will bring in a few more
afternoon clouds; dry weather is expected.

- Quiet Weather Weekend, Chance of rain increases after Tuesday

Flow regime across the CONUS is dominated by eastern longwave trough
and western upper high/ridging into next week. Surface anticyclone
of Canadian origin persists over the weekend with low humidity and
offers several days of sunshine for saturated ground to dry out.

Good model agreement adds confidence to the forecast of a shortwave
trough diving southeast from Canada and cutting off across the Great
Lakes by Wednesday and this will bring the next chance of showers
and thunderstorms for mid-week. GFS soundings show some potential
for strong storms Wednesday afternoon with deep layer shear of 30
knots and sfc-based instability, so we will watch how this
evolves.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions are ongoing as FEW to SCT Cu around 4kft will
continue today before diminishing this evening. Tonight, clear
skies and light winds will be present as high pressure moves over
the area. There are weak signals for fog after 09z at AZO, BTL,
and JXN. However given low (10-20 percent) chances for
visibilities reaching MVFR levels or lower will leave fog out of
the current TAFs. SCT high clouds cross the area tonight with cu
forecast to develop near 7kft Saturday afternoon. Winds will be
below 10 knots through the forecast period.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Lighter winds are expected today compared to yesterday and marine
hazards are not expected for the next few days.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno/04
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...04