399
FXUS63 KGRR 180543
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
143 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drying out this evening

- Warm and dry weather ahead

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

- Drying out this evening

PWAT values drop steadily into the late afternoon hours with
values falling to around 0.75 inches. Forecast soundings and
bufkit overviews show considerable dry in the mid to upper levels
during this period. Satellite imagery shows the skies clearing out
Thus we will feature mostly clear conditions for tonight. Decent
radiational cooling is expected, especially after midnight when
the winds slowly diminish. We will feature well below normal
temperatures for tonight with many locations seeing overnight lows
in the low to mid 50`s.

- Warm and dry weather ahead

High pressure will continue to build over the region this weekend
and into next week. This will allow for a nice period of overall
dry/pleasant weather with fairly comfortable summertime
temperatures and humidities. Daytime max temps will hover around
normal through this period.

  The sole caveat will be a set of boundaries that will sweep
through the region Sunday evening and Monday evening. These will be
fueled by an upper level trough extending from northeastern
Canada, though, latest models have it being a fairly open and weak
wave by time it reaches us. There is some mid level moisture. The
question is can it saturate the low levels and will there be
enough warm air to overcome the dry stable air mass in place. So
can`t rule out isolated showers/storms Sunday evening and Monday
evening.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR weather prevailing today and tonight with dry air mass in
place, and this is high confidence. North-northwest sfc winds
near 10 kts, although gusting to around 20 kts at MKG this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The winds and waves have increased steadily this afternoon and
many sites are showing wind gusts in the 15 to 25 knot range with
locally higher values around Muskegon. Waves have built up to 3.5
to 4 feet in the nearshore waters based on the buoy`s but the
north sides of the piers were seeing higher values. The swim and
boat risk has increased considerably as a result and the hazardous
conditions will persist into tonight. Water temperatures were
warm, generally in the low to mid 70`s.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJS/Ceru
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...MJS