727
FXUS63 KGRR 160750
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
350 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Turning cooler and less humid; still a chance of a few
  showers/storms through Wednesday

- Dry and pleasant weather for Thursday through Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

- Turning cooler and less humid; still a chance of a few
  showers/storms through Wednesday

Widespread showers and storms will be exiting to the east early
this morning although erratic/gusty winds may occur for the next
couple hours in the wake of the departing MCS. The sfc cold front
across nrn Lwr MI has been touching off some scattered tstms and
some of these will impact areas north of I-96 early this morning.

As the cold front continues to sag southward this afternoon some
new diurnally enhanced non-severe cells may develop, although
coverage should be generally limited to areas near/east of
Highway U.S. 127. While these cells will wane/exit with sunset,
the approach of the upper trough later tonight could produce
additional scattered showers and possibly a tstm. The cold front
will bring gradually lowering dew pts after its passage tonight.

The H5 upper trough/cold pool sets up overhead on Wednesday and a
few showers and storms will remain possible despite cooler temps
in the 70s and lower dew pts in 50s behind the cold front.
Coverage should be quite limited though and generally limited to
areas east of Hwy 131 or possibly just near east of U.S. 127
again.

- Dry and pleasant weather for Thursday through Sunday

A stretch of dry and pleasant weather is expected for Thursday
through the weekend as a sprawling area of sfc high pressure
dominates the Great Lakes Region. Highs near 80 and lows in the
50s along with dew pts in the 50s and clear to partly cloudy
skies will make for comfortable/pleasant summer weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 153 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Showers and thunderstorms producing occasional MVFR/IFR
conditions and briefly gusty winds before exiting to the east by
09Z. Numerous MVFR cigs forming in the wake of the exiting
convection and lingering through much of the morning then cigs
lifting to VFR levels toward/after 18Z. Additional widely
scattered showers and possibly an isolated t-storm possible with
the cold frontal passage later today/this evening, with best risk
near LAN/JXN, otherwise VFR continuing into tonight. Winds
shifting westerly this morning, becoming gusty to 20 kts this
afternoon, the diminishing after 00Z this evening while turning
northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Increased westerly flow this morning in the wake of last night`s
thunderstorms may produce 2-4 ft waves and a moderate swim risk
at west MI beaches this morning. (Latest Port Sheldon buoy ob
shows 3.6 ft.)

A cold front slides down the lake this afternoon and evening,
shifting the winds to the north-northwest. We will likely need a
Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard Statement for Wednesday as
the winds increase to near 20 kts along the coast in the
afternoon.

High pressure will dominate the GrtLks Rgn later this week
resulting in an extended period of relatively tranquil conditions
on Lk MI-- other than the typical afternoon/early evening
increased onshore breezes. It`s possible the northerly flow on
Wednesday will result in an upwelling event and cooler water temps
at the beaches although confidence low at this time.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The areal Flood Watch has been cancelled but Flood Advisories
remain in effect along/south of I-94. Also a Flood Warning
continues for the Kalamazoo metro area as well as a River Flood
Warning for the typically flashy JACM4/Jackson site. The areal
headlines will probably be cancelled or allowed to expire by
daybreak as heavy rain has ended and water will be receding. Will
monitor the JACM4 site to see if it reaches/exceeds flood but
either way it should fall quickly below flood stage by later this
morning or early this afternoon. A stretch of dry weather is
anticipated from mid week through the weekend.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meade
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...Meade
HYDROLOGY...Meade