593
FXUS63 KGRR 170700
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
300 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms today

- Fair weather and below normal temps Thursday

- Dry pattern continues into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

- Isolated showers and storms today

A mid to upper level disturbance moving in from the nnw will
combine with weak instability from daytime heating and pool of
cooler air aloft to bring potential for isolated storms. The
relatively best chc for an isolated shower or storm will be over
our ne fcst area this aftn where stronger mid to upper level pva
will develop. However even there coverage of any pcpn will be
rather limited given weak instability and an increasingly drier
airmass with nw winds.

- Fair weather and below normal temps Thursday

The high pressure ridge will build overhead Thursday and bring
mostly sunny skies with seasonably cool temps in the lower to
middle 70s and mins mainly in the 50s.

- Dry pattern continues into next week

Stretch of dry/pleasant weather continues through the weekend with
comfortable temperatures and humidities. While some weak troughing
will exist aloft, the sfc pattern has a large area of high pressure
overhead. Highs near 80 and lows in the 50s with partly cloudy skies
will be the rule and can`t rule out the possibility of some late-
night/early morning shallow fog patches given the light wind regime
under the sfc high.

While an isolated shower or storm is possible mainly inland from Lk
MI Sunday through Tuesday, our next decent chance of rain does not
really emerge until the middle or late part of next week when the
troughing aloft becomes a bit more pronounced and somewhat higher
PWATs return. Even this is far from a sure thing though given
general lack of deep layer shear and limited potential for organized
systems.  Many locations may not see any appreciable rainfall for
over a week which is more typical for late July and in contrast to
the active/rainy pattern we`ve seen recently.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Some patchy/shallow ground fog cannot be completely ruled out
early this morning where any lengthy/persistent breaks in the
cloud cover occur. Otherwise VFR weather is expected the next 24
hours with sct-bkn clouds between 6000 and 8000 ft. Northwest sfc
winds increasing to 10 to 20 kts and gusty this afternoon then
subsiding below 10 kts after sunset this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A SCA and beach hazards statement is in effect from noon through
early Thursday morning. Northwest winds will increase to around 10
to 20 kts with a few higher gusts as the pressure gradient
strengthens a bit in advance of high pressure building into the
upper midwest today. Minimal wind speeds and wave heights are
forecast Thursday and Friday as the ridge builds over our region.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from this afternoon through late tonight
     for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Thursday for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meade/Laurens
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...Laurens