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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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094 FXUS63 KGRB 160849 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 349 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Turning cooler and much less humid the next couple days, with only a small chance of precipitation. - Mainly dry weather expected mid-late week into next weekend. Some small rain chances, but no widespread rain and severe weather is not expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday A cold front was moving through the far SE part of the forecast area early this morning, and associated thunderstorms were shifting to our east. Partly cloudy skies were observed in most areas, and patchy fog was developing over NC WI. A less humid Canadian air mass was spreading into the region, and dew points had already fallen into the 50s in the northwest part of the CWA. Precipitation Trends: A secondary cold front and short-wave trough will impact the region this afternoon, bringing a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. A few of these may linger into early evening before dissipating. Later tonight into Wednesday morning, NNW flow and lake-H8 delta-t`s around 13 C may help produce some lake-enhanced showers in NC WI. A short-wave moving through the region will also help generate isolated/scattered showers over northern and eastern WI. Smoke trends...RAP/HRRR smoke models continue to show a threat of smoke or haze today and tonight, mainly over eastern WI. Will just carry haze in the forecast at this time, though the next shift will need to watch for any surface impacts as the day wears on. Temperatures & Humidity...High temperatures will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s today, and cool to the middle 60s to middle 70s on Wednesday. Dew points drop to much more comfortable readings in the 50s and lower 60s today, and upper 40s to middle 50s on Wednesday. Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Monday Generally low-impact weather expected for the long term portion of the forecast. Surface high pressure and rising upper heights are noted from Wednesday evening through Thursday. A few showers could linger into early Wednesday evening, otherwise, dry weather is expected along with temperatures near or slightly below normal and comfortable humidity levels. Highs will range from the mid-70s to low 80s, and lows in the mid 40s to upper 50s. High starts to move east on Friday and by the weekend a weak surface front along with some afternoon instability could produce a few isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms. At the moment, any development looks rather modest. Temperature remain near normal through the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A cold front will continue moving through the region overnight, as an expansive cirrus shield from convection across southern Wisconsin continues to impact northeastern Wisconsin. Some clearing is possible late tonight into Tuesday morning as this thunderstorm complex moves east. High based cumulus clouds are expected Tuesday afternoon, with isolated showers or thunderstorms possible. VFR conditions are expected during the TAF period. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch/KLJ AVIATION.......Kurimski