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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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148 FXUS63 KGRB 171054 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 554 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures are expected today and tonight, then temperatures return closer to normal for the end of the week. - Mainly dry weather is expected through Saturday morning. The next chance of showers and storms is on Saturday afternoon, with a continuing chance of afternoon showers and storms into the middle of next week. The risk of severe weather is low over the weekend, and uncertain next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Thursday WV imagery showed a fairly potent short-wave trough moving through NW WI early this morning, but a lack of moisture and instability was limiting shower development, except over the bay and Door County, where over-water instability was promoting scattered thunderstorm development. North winds were pulling cooler Canadian air into the region, and bringing an area of low clouds into the MN Arrowhead and western Lake Superior. These low clouds will likely impact at least NC WI this morning. Precipitation Trends: The previously-mentioned short-wave will sweep through the region early this morning, with additional short-wave energy brushing far NE WI during the afternoon and evening. Current thunderstorm activity over the bay/Door County and isolated showers elsewhere will persist until the short-wave moves out early this morning. Additional shower chances will occur over far NC WI (Vilas and northern Forest/Oneida counties), where NNW flow and lake-H8 delta-t`s up to 13 C will provide lake-enhancement this morning through midday/early afternoon. A few light showers may also form in eastern WI this afternoon. Canadian high pressure brings dry conditions tonight into Thursday. Smoke trends...RAP/HRRR smoke models show less elevated smoke over the region today/tonight than yesterday, and given that impacts have been minimal to this point, will leave any mention out of the forecast. Temperatures & Humidity...Below normal temperatures and lower humidity will prevail through Thursday, so air conditioners should get a break for a couple days. Highs will be in the middle 60s to middle 70s (along with NW-N winds gusting to around 20 mph) today, and middle to upper 70s on Thursday. Lows tonight should be in the 40s to middle 50s. Dew points will be in the middle 40s to middle 50s; very comfortable for outdoor activities. Long Term...Thursday Night Through Tuesday Quiet weather at the start of the long term forecast, with a few chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend and early next week. High pressure keeps conditions dry, mostly sunny, and seasonable on Friday. As the high slides east Friday night a weak surface front is able to move down on Saturday. The front appears to stall out, and then oscillate back north and south for a few days. This boundary along with daytime instability will bring chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday afternoons (mainly between Noon to 7PM). Anything that does develop this weekend would likely be short-lived and non-severe. Heavy rain concerns will also be quite minimal with a lack of deep moisture. NBM probabilities show a roughly 20 to 40 percent chance of any precip Saturday and Sunday, but less than 10 percent chance to receive even a quarter inch at any given location. This setup persists into early next week, but it is too early to get a full grasp of severe potential. Temperatures will generally be near normal through the forecast period, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s, and lows in the 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 542 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A short-wave trough and associated isolated showers will shift east early this morning. Cool NNW winds flowing across Lake Superior will produce lake-enhanced low clouds (MVFR ceilings) and a few showers over north central and far northeast WI through late morning/midday. Elsewhere, SCT-BKN cumulus (VFR, with ceilings of 4-6K ft AGL) will occur during the late morning and afternoon, and a few light showers may develop in eastern WI. NW-N winds will gust to 15 to 20 knots during the late morning and afternoon. Clouds will erode and winds diminish by early evening. .KOSH...VFR conditions are expected today and tonight, with SCT- BKN cumulus (bases of 4-5K ft AGL) developing in the late morning and afternoon, then eroding by early evening. There is a very small chance of showers in the afternoon, but confidence is currently too low to mention in the TAF. North-northwest winds will gust to 15-20 knots in the late morning and afternoon, then diminish by sunset. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch/KLJ AVIATION.......Kieckbusch