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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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235 FXUS63 KGRB 172313 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 613 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures are expected tonight, then temperatures return closer to normal for the weekend. - Mainly dry weather is expected through Saturday morning. The next chance of showers and storms is on Saturday afternoon, with a continuing chance of afternoon showers and storms into the middle of next week. The risk of severe weather is low over the weekend and uncertain next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Short Term...Tonight and Thursday Minimal impacts are expected through this forecast period, with the main highlights being lingering isolated showers through early this evening and below normal temperatures. This evening and tonight...This afternoon`s water vapor imagery highlighted a mid-level shortwave trough moving over southern Ontario. The combination of this shortwave energy and low-level north/northwest winds allowing moisture to flow off of Lake Superior, resulted in lake-enhanced clouds and isolated showers/sprinkles to develop and drop south over the area this afternoon. An area of more scattered showers over the central U.P. was also observed on radar this afternoon, in association with the main shortwave energy. High pressure will gradually begin to move into the area this evening and overnight and bring an end to all showers and clouds. Until then, anticipate a few isolated showers to drop south into far northeast and east-central WI through early this evening. For the remainder of the night, the combination of the high pressure system overhead, light winds, and clear skies, cooler temperatures are expected with lows ranging from the low 40s to middle 50s. These values are about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Thursday...The high pressure system will continue to prevail over the area for Thursday, resulting in dry conditions under mostly sunny skies. Anticipate afternoon cumulus clouds to develop as forecast soundings would suggest. Warmer temperatures are expected with highs ranging from the middle to upper 70s. Long Term...Thursday Night Through Wednesday 500mb ridge across the western United States and downstream troughing across the western Great Lakes will continue into the middle of next week. Temperatures will be close to normal during the period. For Thursday night and Friday, high pressure south of the area will continue to move away. Sunny skies will prevail on Friday as high temperatures return to near normal levels. On Friday night into Saturday morning, a cold front across southern Canada will sink slowly southward. The front will work into northern Wisconsin Saturday afternoon, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the north. Bufkit soundings indicated 500 to 1,000 J/KG of CAPE with 0-6 km shear values only around 10 knots. Some of the storms could contain gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, but severe weather is not expected. Did linger a chance of showers and storms into the evening, mainly north of Highway 10. Dry conditions will prevail late Saturday night into Sunday morning with the next chance of showers and storms Sunday afternoon. Severe weather is not expected. For Monday and Monday night, another weak cold front will move into northern Wisconsin Monday afternoon, bringing another chance of showers and storms. The models continue to show instability showers and storms during the afternoon and evening Tuesday and Wednesday. It is too early to determine if any of the storms between Monday and Wednesday would become severe. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A widespread VFR cumulus field, with bases of 4-6k ft, will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. N-NW surface winds gusting to 15-20 knots will also diminish early this evening. There is a low-end chance (15-20%) for showers early this evening, mainly across far eastern Wisconsin and mainly affecting the MTW TAF site. Lightning is not expected with this activity. As a high pressure system sags over the region this evening clouds will scattered out with skies becoming clear overnight and into Thursday morning. Another cumulus field is expected to develop Thursday afternoon, with bases of 4-6k ft, but with less coverage at FEW-SCT. .OSH...A broken VFR cumulus field, with a cloud base around 6kft, will become scattered early this evening. Any showers should stay well east of OSH this evening. Northwesterly winds with gusts reaching 15-20 kts will diminish this evening as winds back and become more westerly. Skies should clear out this evening and overnight has a high pressure system settles in over the region. Another VFR cumulus cloud field is expected to develop Thursday afternoon, with cloud bases around 5kft and scattered in coverage. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kruk/Eckberg AVIATION.......Kurimski