094
FXUS63 KGRB 160849
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
349 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Turning cooler and much less humid the next couple days, with
  only a small chance of precipitation.

- Mainly dry weather expected mid-late week into next weekend.
  Some small rain chances, but no widespread rain and severe
  weather is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday

A cold front was moving through the far SE part of the forecast
area early this morning, and associated thunderstorms were
shifting to our east. Partly cloudy skies were observed in most
areas, and patchy fog was developing over NC WI. A less humid
Canadian air mass was spreading into the region, and dew points
had already fallen into the 50s in the northwest part of the CWA.

Precipitation Trends: A secondary cold front and short-wave trough
will impact the region this afternoon, bringing a chance of
showers and a few thunderstorms. A few of these may linger into
early evening before dissipating. Later tonight into Wednesday
morning, NNW flow and lake-H8 delta-t`s around 13 C may help
produce some lake-enhanced showers in NC WI. A short-wave moving
through the region will also help generate isolated/scattered
showers over northern and eastern WI.

Smoke trends...RAP/HRRR smoke models continue to show a threat of
smoke or haze today and tonight, mainly over eastern WI. Will
just carry haze in the forecast at this time, though the next
shift will need to watch for any surface impacts as the day wears
on.

Temperatures & Humidity...High temperatures will be in the middle
70s to lower 80s today, and cool to the middle 60s to middle 70s
on Wednesday. Dew points drop to much more comfortable readings in
the 50s and lower 60s today, and upper 40s to middle 50s on
Wednesday.

Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Monday

Generally low-impact weather expected for the long term portion of
the forecast.

Surface high pressure and rising upper heights are noted from
Wednesday evening through Thursday. A few showers could linger
into early Wednesday evening, otherwise, dry weather is expected
along with temperatures near or slightly below normal and
comfortable humidity levels. Highs will range from the mid-70s to
low 80s, and lows in the mid 40s to upper 50s.

High starts to move east on Friday and by the weekend a weak
surface front along with some afternoon instability could produce
a few isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms. At the
moment, any development looks rather modest. Temperature remain
near normal through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A cold front will continue moving through the region overnight, as
an expansive cirrus shield from convection across southern
Wisconsin continues to impact northeastern Wisconsin. Some
clearing is possible late tonight into Tuesday morning as this
thunderstorm complex moves east. High based cumulus clouds are
expected Tuesday afternoon, with isolated showers or thunderstorms
possible. VFR conditions are expected during the TAF period.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch/KLJ
AVIATION.......Kurimski