726
FXUS63 KGLD 082015
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
215 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through the period.

- Heat gradually increases, peaking Friday through Monday with
  high temperatures generally a few degrees either side of 100.

- Heat indices of 100 to 105 remain in the forecast Friday
  through Monday for those generally east of Highway 25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Tonight...a clear sky is expected with low temperatures in the 55 to
60 degree range.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...a weather disturbance (currently located in
Montana Monday afternoon) is forecast to move into the forecast area
during the times of peak heating before continuing southeast and out
of the area during the night. There should be enough moisture (700-
500mb) and lift with this feature to produce at least an isolated
storm or two across much of the area with enough confidence to
insert 20% pops across parts of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in
Colorado in the late afternoon/early evening hours. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s with
low temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...presently, the forecast area is a a lull
of moisture from 850-300mb. That, along with very limited
instabilty, preventing any showers and thunderstorms from
forming. y should be enough to prevent showers and thunderstorms
from forming. High temperatures rise another few degrees into
the lower to middle 90s with low temperatures in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...NAM/GFS/ECMWF models do show an increase
in 700-500mb moisture moving into the area from the northwest during
the afternoon and evening hours. This may be enough to support at
least a few thunderstorms and later forecasts may need to go that
route. High temperatures continue to rise and should be in the 95 to
100 degree range. If the NAM/GFS 850mb temperature bias` from the
past 2 weeks verify, we`ll see highs in the middle 90s to around
103. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Upper ridge centered over the Rockies will be firmly in control
this period. Temperatures will be much above normal in the
triple digits with occasional near record or record highs. Some
locations, mainly east of Highway 25, may approach heat advisory
criteria with heat indices near 105. Precipitation chances will
be slim to none, but cannot completely rule out a stray shower
or thunderstorm that may form on any surface boundaries that
make into the area at peak heating. Even if something were to
develop, in this environment it would more likely be virga than
measurable precipitation. Confidence is low so will not have any
mention of precipitation at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected through the
period with light and variable winds. Fair weather cumulus
clouds are anticipated from mid afternoon through sunset.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99