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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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379 FXUS63 KGLD 090340 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 940 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry through the period. - Heat gradually increases, peaking Friday through Monday with high temperatures generally a few degrees either side of 100. - Heat indices of 100 to 105 remain in the forecast Friday through Monday for those generally east of Highway 25. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Tonight...a clear sky is expected with low temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree range. Tuesday-Tuesday night...a weather disturbance (currently located in Montana Monday afternoon) is forecast to move into the forecast area during the times of peak heating before continuing southeast and out of the area during the night. There should be enough moisture (700- 500mb) and lift with this feature to produce at least an isolated storm or two across much of the area with enough confidence to insert 20% pops across parts of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado in the late afternoon/early evening hours. High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday-Wednesday night...presently, the forecast area is a a lull of moisture from 850-300mb. That, along with very limited instabilty, preventing any showers and thunderstorms from forming. y should be enough to prevent showers and thunderstorms from forming. High temperatures rise another few degrees into the lower to middle 90s with low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Thursday-Thursday night...NAM/GFS/ECMWF models do show an increase in 700-500mb moisture moving into the area from the northwest during the afternoon and evening hours. This may be enough to support at least a few thunderstorms and later forecasts may need to go that route. High temperatures continue to rise and should be in the 95 to 100 degree range. If the NAM/GFS 850mb temperature bias` from the past 2 weeks verify, we`ll see highs in the middle 90s to around 103. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Upper ridge centered over the Rockies will be firmly in control this period. Temperatures will be much above normal in the triple digits with occasional near record or record highs. Some locations, mainly east of Highway 25, may approach heat advisory criteria with heat indices near 105. Precipitation chances will be slim to none, but cannot completely rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm that may form on any surface boundaries that make into the area at peak heating. Even if something were to develop, in this environment it would more likely be virga than measurable precipitation. Confidence is low so will not have any mention of precipitation at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 936 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds will be light/variable through much of the forecast, but from 14z-18z southwest around 10kts, and from 01z Wednesday onward, southeast around 10kts. For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds, light/variable through 22z Tuesday, then east-southeast around 10kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...JN