206
FXUS63 KGLD 090718
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
118 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through the period.

- Heat gradually increases, peaking Friday through Monday with
  high temperatures generally a few degrees either side of 100.

- Heat indices of 100 to 105 remain in the forecast Friday
  through Monday for those generally east of Highway 25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 116 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

For the short term period, benign and warm conditions continue to be
forecast for the area. The area is forecast to remain between an
upper trough to the east and a ridge to the west, though the ridge
is forecast to slowly expand more into the area. With this, the area
remains in northwest flow, but precipitation remains unlikely with
an overall lack of moisture. Today, there is some moisture forecast
to be in the 700-500mb layer that could generate some cloud cover
this afternoon and maybe a sprinkle or two (low levels will likely
be too dry for any measurable precipitation). Otherwise, highs for
today are forecast to climb to around 90 while tomorrow has most of
the area in the low to mid 90`s. Lows each night are forecast to
drop into the 50`s and 60`s. Winds are forecast to remain relatively
light with the weak flow and broad pressure gradient over the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

The long-term will be dominated by a high pressure system over the
Four Corners region. This blocking high looks to persist through the
period and will work to create hot and dry conditions across the Tri-
State area. GEFS and the 0Z GFS are suggesting the trough to our
east will create a cutoff low over Texas late in the period, which
could introduce some showers early next week. Confidence is only
about 20% that this will occur.

The NBM seems to have a solid handle on the heat with temperatures
from Friday onwards warming to above 100 degrees for most of the
area. Heat indices will be near air temperature and are so far
remaining below 105F. Overnight temperatures be fairly warm with
lows ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Sunday night looks to be
the warmest and heat indices in Graham county may not drop below 75F.

The hot and dry air will lower RH values into the mid to lower teens
throughout the period, with the Colorado counties being the driest.
These dry conditions do elevate fire weather concerns. However, wind
does not look to be overly strong. The "best" days for fire weather
conditions look to be Friday through Sunday, but wind gusts look to
remain under 20 kts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 936 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds
will be light/variable through much of the forecast, but from
14z-18z southwest around 10kts, and from 01z Wednesday onward,
southeast around 10kts.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
light/variable through 22z Tuesday, then east-southeast around
10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Defender of the Knight
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JN