513
FXUS63 KGLD 092151
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
351 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions likely the next 7 days.

- The heat gradually increases, peaking Friday through Tuesday
  with high temperatures generally in the upper 90s to 105.

- Overnight heat indices near 75 degrees Norton/Graham counties
  Sunday night and Monday night.

- Daytime heat indices around 100 Saturday Norton/Graham
  counties, east of Highway 25 Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Tonight...a clear to mostly clear sky is expected with low
temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...mid level dry air moves into the area
from the north, preventing any shower and thunderstorm activity from
developing. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to
middle 90s with low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...this mornings NAM/GFS/ECMWF models do show
an increase in 700-500mb moisture moving into the western half of
the area during the afternoon, potentially supportive of a few
thunderstorms. Overnight, another batch of moisture in the 700-500mb
layer moves into the northeast and eastern parts of the area after
about midnight, potentially supportive of another slight chance for
thunderstorms. High temperatures rise another 3F to 5F per 850mb
temperatures, supportive of readings in the 95 to 100 degree range.
Low temperatures look to be in the 60s.

Friday-Friday night...the tail end of Thursday nights potential
weather system interacts with daytime heating to support a potential
for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Presently, the
forecast dry. If this trend continues, later shifts may need to
introduce some slight chance pops for thunderstorms. High
temperatures rise another 3F to 5F into the upper 90s to around 104
degrees. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Saturday...an upper level ridge centered over the Colorado will
preclude any thunderstorm potential, despite a hint of sufficient
moisture in the 700-500mb layer across the southeast 1/2 of the
area. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures support high temperatures in
the 100 to 105 degree range, within a few degrees of the NBM
forecast. Low temperatures remain mild in the middle 60s to lower
70s.

Sunday...the ridge over Colorado Saturday elongates itself over the
central plains. A significant mid level dry slot covers the area,
preventing any thunderstorm potential. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb
temperatures in the 30C to 36C range are spot on with the NBM
forecast highs in the 100 to 105 degree range. Low temperatures
support high temperatures again in the middle 60s to lower 70s.

Monday...NBM model is inserting 20% chances for thunderstorms during
the evening hours. Looking at GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850-700/700-500mb
relative humidity forecasts, they are rather dry and not supportive
of any showers or thunderstorms. It will remain hot with high
temperatures in the 100 to 105 degree range. Low temperatures range
from the middle 60s to middle 70s.

Tuesday...NBM/GFS models support afternoon and overnight chances for
showers and thunderstorms as an upper level trough moves through.
High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 90s to around 100
degrees with low temperatures in the lower 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 351 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds,
south-southeast through 13z Wednesday, then continuing to veer
southwest 5-10kts. A shift northwest by 15z and eventually
northeast 10-15kts by 18z.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds,
southeast around 10kts through 04z Wednesday, then
light/variable. By 17z, northeast around 10kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JN