Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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975 FXUS63 KGLD 100207 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 807 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions likely the next 7 days. - The heat gradually increases, peaking Friday through Tuesday with high temperatures generally in the upper 90s to 105. - Overnight heat indices near 75 degrees Norton/Graham counties Sunday night and Monday night. - Daytime heat indices around 100 Saturday Norton/Graham counties, east of Highway 25 Sunday and Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 753 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Amplified ridging across the western CONUS continues. Weak waves continue to ride down the eastern periphery of the ridge which has led to the development of hit and miss showers and storms this afternoon into the evening. RAP does hint at some redevelopment across the southeastern portion of the CWA overnight so included silent pops due to concerns of dry air keeping everything as virga. Additional hit and miss storms are possible across Graham, Sheridan and Gove counties Wednesday afternoon as well; have included silent pops for those as well. Thursday afternoon RAP indicates a little better 700-500 mb moisture developing along an 850mb FGEN boundary across Cheyenne (CO) and Greeley county. Latest 00Z HRRR is initiating convection in the area as well. 21Z RAP soundings show an environment that may support some low end severe weather with 30-35 knots of wind shear, very steep lapse rates and 700 j/kg of MUCAPE. Will pass along to the next shift to keep an eye on this for continuity purposes before adding into the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Tonight...a clear to mostly clear sky is expected with low temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday-Wednesday night...mid level dry air moves into the area from the north, preventing any shower and thunderstorm activity from developing. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 90s with low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Thursday-Thursday night...this mornings NAM/GFS/ECMWF models do show an increase in 700-500mb moisture moving into the western half of the area during the afternoon, potentially supportive of a few thunderstorms. Overnight, another batch of moisture in the 700-500mb layer moves into the northeast and eastern parts of the area after about midnight, potentially supportive of another slight chance for thunderstorms. High temperatures rise another 3F to 5F per 850mb temperatures, supportive of readings in the 95 to 100 degree range. Low temperatures look to be in the 60s. Friday-Friday night...the tail end of Thursday nights potential weather system interacts with daytime heating to support a potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Presently, the forecast dry. If this trend continues, later shifts may need to introduce some slight chance pops for thunderstorms. High temperatures rise another 3F to 5F into the upper 90s to around 104 degrees. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Saturday...an upper level ridge centered over the Colorado will preclude any thunderstorm potential, despite a hint of sufficient moisture in the 700-500mb layer across the southeast 1/2 of the area. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures support high temperatures in the 100 to 105 degree range, within a few degrees of the NBM forecast. Low temperatures remain mild in the middle 60s to lower 70s. Sunday...the ridge over Colorado Saturday elongates itself over the central plains. A significant mid level dry slot covers the area, preventing any thunderstorm potential. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures in the 30C to 36C range are spot on with the NBM forecast highs in the 100 to 105 degree range. Low temperatures support high temperatures again in the middle 60s to lower 70s. Monday...NBM model is inserting 20% chances for thunderstorms during the evening hours. Looking at GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850-700/700-500mb relative humidity forecasts, they are rather dry and not supportive of any showers or thunderstorms. It will remain hot with high temperatures in the 100 to 105 degree range. Low temperatures range from the middle 60s to middle 70s. Tuesday...NBM/GFS models support afternoon and overnight chances for showers and thunderstorms as an upper level trough moves through. High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 90s to around 100 degrees with low temperatures in the lower 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 351 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds, south-southeast through 13z Wednesday, then continuing to veer southwest 5-10kts. A shift northwest by 15z and eventually northeast 10-15kts by 18z. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds, southeast around 10kts through 04z Wednesday, then light/variable. By 17z, northeast around 10kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...JN