461
FXUS63 KGLD 101142
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
542 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions likely the next 7 days, though there could be a
  few isolated storms tomorrow. A severe wind gust will be
  possible if a storm develops.

- The heat gradually increases, peaking Friday through Monday
  with high temperatures generally in the upper 90s to 105.

- Overnight minimum heat indices near 75 degrees Norton/Graham
  counties Sunday night and Monday night.

- Daytime heat indices around 100 to 105 Saturday Norton/Graham
  counties, east of Highway 25 Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 201 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The short term pattern continues to remain mostly dry and warm as
the upper trough continues to slowly expand over the area. With
this, temperatures continue to get warmer with 850mb temps generally
around 27-31 C which supports surface temperatures around the mid
to upper 90`s. Lower levels are forecast to remain dry which will
allow for some elevated fire conditions in Eastern Colorado, but
winds and RH are unlikely to reach critical criteria. Skies will
generally remain sunny/clear, though small pockets of mid-level
moisture remain forecast each day that could produce cloud cover and
maybe a shower or storm. The better chance for any precipitation is
tomorrow in Eastern Colorado during the afternoon and evening with
the continued northwest flow aloft. There is a very low chance for a
severe wind gust tomorrow (likely a microburst) with any storm that
does form. Will also need to keep an eye out for a convective
complex moving in from Western Nebraska overnight as hinted by some
guidance. I`m not overly convinced this will happen with the
overall lower moisture availability, though more scattered coverage
in pop up storms or virga could allow for moistening and help
sustain a cluster/complex. As for today, the better mid-level
moisture seems to be more likely over Central Kansas so storm
chances are minimal. In regards to winds, winds are forecast to
generally be below 15 kts, especially today where less than 10 kts
is forecast for most of the area with a weaker gradient.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 209 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The long-term will be dominated by a high pressure system over the
Four Corners region. This blocking high looks to persist through the
period and will work to create hot and dry conditions across the Tri-
State area. Models are still moderately disagreeing about the end of
the period, but more are showing a cutoff upper-level low forming
over Texas, southeast of the lingering high pressure system. This
feature would lead to a higher potential for evening showers and
storms each day Monday through Wednesday. Maximum PoPs are Tuesday
evening, around 45%.

The NBM still seems to have a solid handle on the heat with
temperatures from Friday onwards warming to above 100 degrees for
most of the area. Heat indices will be near air temperature and and
could briefly exceed 105F in the eastern CWA, mainly on Saturday and
Sunday. Overnight temperatures be fairly warm with lows ranging from
the mid 60s to mid 70s. Sunday and Monday nights look to be the
warmest, and heat indices in Graham county may not drop below 75F.

The hot and dry air will lower RH values into the mid to lower teens
throughout the period, with the Colorado counties being the driest.
These dry conditions do elevate fire weather concerns. We could see
a brief gust or two around 25 MPH, the winds do not look to be
overly strong. The "best" days for fire weather conditions look to
be Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both
terminals. The winds are forecast to be light to start the
morning, but will pick up to around 10 kts with gusts around 19
kts and shift from out of the south, to out of the northwest,
then out of the east. Storm chances remain very low (<5%).

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...The Last Knight
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...The Last Knight