193
FXUS63 KGLD 111144
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
544 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions likely the next 7 days, though there could be a
  few isolated storms Thursday. A severe wind gust will be
  possible if a storm develops.

- The heat gradually increases, peaking Friday through Monday
  with high temperatures generally in the upper 90s to 105.

- Overnight minimum heat indices near 75 degrees Norton/Graham
  counties Sunday night and Monday night.

- Daytime heat indices around 100 to 105 Saturday Norton/Graham
  counties, east of Highway 25 Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Upper ridge will build over the area the next three days as
shown by gradually rising 500 mb heights. Temperatures will warm
correspondingly with highs in the mid to upper 90s on Thursday,
lower 100s on Friday and low to middle 100s on Saturday.
However, due to low humidity heat indices will remain below 105
this period, which is heat advisory criteria. Thunderstorm
chances will be low, but not zero. On Thursday, CAMs show late
afternoon initiation generally a county or two either side of
the Kansas and Colorado border, where some weak surface
convergence in forecast combined with perhaps a weak wave
topping the ridge in northwest flow. The environment will be
weakly unstable, 500-1000 j/kg, and deep layer shear around 40
kts. Deeply mixed, inverted-v soundings suggest a marginal risk
for severe wind gusts near any thunderstorm through early
Thursday evening. On Friday, instability will be weaker, less
than 500 j/kg, but shear is about the same with still some hint
of northwest flow aloft. Depending on the model, there may also
be some weak convergence at the surface that would initiate
convection. Once again, should something develop, and it would
be isolated, wind would be the only hazardous risk. The ridge
should be too strong by Saturday and cap any chances for convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The long-term will see a transition as the blocking high pressure
system over the Rockies breaks down and allows shortwaves to move
off the Rockies. Sunday and Monday, the high pressure will still
dominate over the region, but starting Monday an upper-level
inverted trough begins to push in over Texas. This trough will force
the high to retrograde closer to the Great Basin, lessening the
pressure over the CWA through the remainder of the period.

The NBM still seems to have a solid handle on the heat with
temperatures from Sunday and Monday warming to above 100 degrees for
most of the area. Heat indices will be near air temperature and and
could briefly exceed 105F in the eastern CWA through Monday. Tuesday
will be the start of a bit of a cooling trend. Tuesday will still
warm into the mid 90s to near 100, but by Thursday, highs should be
in the 80s. Overnight temperatures will also have a cooling trend
throughout the period. Sunday night looks to stay in the upper 60s
to mid 70s, but by Wednesday night, lows will be in the lower to mid
60s.

The hot and dry air will lower RH values into the mid to lower teens
Sunday and Monday, with the Colorado counties being the driest.
These dry conditions do elevate fire weather concerns. We could see
a brief gust or two around 25 MPH, the winds do not look to be
overly strong. The "best" days for fire weather conditions look to
be Friday through Sunday.

As the high pressure system is forced back west, our chances of
precipitation increase. Starting Monday afternoon, we could see
diurnal shortwaves ejecting off the Rockies and forcing showers and
storms over the Tri-State area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 958 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Clear skies are currently across the area; will be watching for
some fog potential for KMCK around 11Z as moisture streams in
from the east. The easterly winds are also climatological
favored for fog/stratus development. Winds will remain generally
ESE for the day. A 20-30% chance does exist in a thunderstorm
impacting the KGLD terminal during the late afternoon/early
evening Thursday so introduced a PROB30 for this potential. Any
rain/storms are currently forecast to remain away from the KMCK
terminal.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 452 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

With forecasted high temperatures set to range from 100F to 105F
area-wide from Friday, July 12th through Monday, July 15th there
is the potential for some locales to come with a few degrees of
the record highs for each day. Listed below are the records for
each day:

                   Friday    Saturday     Sunday      Monday

                    7/12        7/13       7/14        7/15
                 ______________________________________________

Goodland KS      106F/1954   108F/1934   107F/1934   106F/1925

Burlington CO    106F/1954+  103F/1934   105F/1925   103F/2000+

Hill City KS     113F/1939   115F/1934   113F/1934   113F/1934

McCook NE        110F/1939   108F/1954+  109F/1934   112F/1925

Colby KS         106F/1995   111F/1934   109F/1934   108F/1925

Yuma CO          106F/1954   108F/1954   105F/2010   102F/2006+

Tribune KS       106F/2008   107F/1934   107F/1934   108F/2000



A (+) denotes a record in multiple years.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg
CLIMATE...