719
FXUS63 KGLD 111711
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1111 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions likely the next 7 days, though there could be a
  few isolated storms this afternoon and evening. A severe wind
  gust will be possible if a storm develops.

- The heat gradually increases, peaking Friday through Monday
  with high temperatures generally in the upper 90s to 105.

- Overnight minimum heat indices near 75 degrees Norton/Graham
  counties Sunday night and Monday night.

- Daytime heat indices around 100 to 105 Saturday Norton/Graham
  counties and east of Highway 25 Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 545 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

High pressure aloft will build back over the area through the
weekend while a lee surface trough develops along the Front Range
today and tomorrow. A stationary front is expected to drape across
the Central High Plains, which is where this afternoons thunderstorm
activity will likely initiate near the Colorado-Kansas-Nebraska
border. Latest CAMs are showing signs that storms will struggle to
initiate in our area this afternoon into the early evening given the
weak instability. Inverted-V soundings with 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE
give us a marginal risk for storms to develop and produced
thunderstorm wind gusts up to 70 mph. Confidence is low to medium
for severe storms this afternoon and the diurnal cycle will likely
play a big role as temperatures warm to the mid 90s for highs.
Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

Friday is a bit similar pattern wise, except the stationary boundary
will become a warm front as the lee trough matures into a surface
low that parks over the Tri-State area while the core of high
pressure at the 200-300 mb layer sits over the Four Corners region.
With the strength of the high, the area is looking to be dry with
highs hitting the low 100s across the area. Heat Index values will
be in the 90s to around 100 degrees.

On Saturday the pattern doesn`t really change as another surface low
develops behind one moving into Iowa. High temperatures will be in
the 100-105 degree range across the area with Heat Index values up
to 104 degrees. With the strength of the high, dry conditions are
expected to persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The long-term will see a transition as the blocking high pressure
system over the Rockies breaks down and allows shortwaves to move
off the Rockies. Sunday and Monday, the high pressure will still
dominate over the region, but starting Monday an upper-level
inverted trough begins to push in over Texas. This trough will force
the high to retrograde closer to the Great Basin, lessening the
pressure over the CWA through the remainder of the period.

The NBM still seems to have a solid handle on the heat with
temperatures from Sunday and Monday warming to above 100 degrees for
most of the area. Heat indices will be near air temperature and and
could briefly exceed 105F in the eastern CWA through Monday. Tuesday
will be the start of a bit of a cooling trend. Tuesday will still
warm into the mid 90s to near 100, but by Thursday, highs should be
in the 80s. Overnight temperatures will also have a cooling trend
throughout the period. Sunday night looks to stay in the upper 60s
to mid 70s, but by Wednesday night, lows will be in the lower to mid
60s.

The hot and dry air will lower RH values into the mid to lower teens
Sunday and Monday, with the Colorado counties being the driest.
These dry conditions do elevate fire weather concerns. We could see
a brief gust or two around 25 MPH, the winds do not look to be
overly strong. The "best" days for fire weather conditions look to
be Friday through Sunday.

As the high pressure system is forced back west, our chances of
precipitation increase. Starting Monday afternoon, we could see
diurnal shortwaves ejecting off the Rockies and forcing showers and
storms over the Tri-State area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. A few isolated thunderstorms will develop late this
afternoon and early evening in the vicinity of the Kansas and
Colorado border area, but probability of impacting the KGLD
terminal is low.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 452 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

With forecasted high temperatures set to range from 100F to 105F
area-wide from Friday, July 12th through Monday, July 15th there
is the potential for some locales to come with a few degrees of
the record highs for each day. Listed below are the records for
each day:

                   Friday    Saturday     Sunday      Monday

                    7/12        7/13       7/14        7/15
                 ______________________________________________

Goodland KS      106F/1954   108F/1934   107F/1934   106F/1925

Burlington CO    106F/1954+  103F/1934   105F/1925   103F/2000+

Hill City KS     113F/1939   115F/1934   113F/1934   113F/1934

McCook NE        110F/1939   108F/1954+  109F/1934   112F/1925

Colby KS         106F/1995   111F/1934   109F/1934   108F/1925

Yuma CO          106F/1954   108F/1954   105F/2010   102F/2006+

Tribune KS       106F/2008   107F/1934   107F/1934   108F/2000



A (+) denotes a record in multiple years.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024
CLIMATE...JN