731
FXUS63 KGLD 121754
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1154 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures with highs in the 100s Friday
  through Monday.

- A few isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this
  afternoon and evening. Some gusty winds possible near
  stronger storms.


- Precipitation chances increase next week with temperatures
  closer to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 501 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Today will be similar pattern wise to yesterday, except the
stationary boundary will become a warm front this afternoon as the
lee trough matures into a surface low over Eastern Colorado. The
core of high pressure at the 200-300 mb layer will sit over the Four
Corners region. The strength of the high, the area is looking to be
dry with highs hitting the low 100s across the area. Heat Index
values will be in the 90s to 102 degrees. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms may develop once again this afternoon into
the evening hours similar to yesterday. Soundings show an inverted-V
profile which is supportive of strong to damaging winds; however,
low to moderate instability and weak shear could limit convection
initiation. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s to lower 70s
tonight.

On Saturday the pattern doesn`t really change as the surface low
begins to slide east over the area. High temperatures will be in the
100-106 degree range across the area with Heat Index values up to
104 degrees. With the strength of the high, dry conditions are
expected to occur. Tomorrow night, overnight lows will fall into the
mid 60s to mid 70s.

Sunday will be the hottest day with highs ranging from 102-108
degrees. Heat Index values up to 106 degrees. With heat index values
only reaching the 105+ degree Heat Advisory criteria locally,
decided to not to issue a Heat Advisory product this forecast
package. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. With
the ridge moving further over the area, dry conditions are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The long-term will see a transition as the blocking high pressure
system over the Rockies breaks down and allows shortwaves to move
off the Rockies. Monday, the high pressure will still dominate over
the region, but an upper-level inverted trough begins to push in
over Texas. This trough will force the high to retrograde closer to
the Great Basin, lessening the pressure over the CWA through the
middle of the workweek. Near the end of the workweek, guidance is
suggesting the ridge will work its way be over the High Plains.

Monday looks to be the last hot day in this stretch, warming to
above 100 degrees for most of the area. Heat indices will be near
air temperature and could briefly exceed 105F in the eastern CWA
Monday. Tuesday will be the start of a bit of a cooling trend.
Tuesday will still warm into the mid 90s to near 100, but by
Thursday, highs should be in the lower to mid 80s. Friday looks to
be the start of our next warming trend, increasing highs by about 5
degrees. Overnight temperatures will also have a cooling trend
throughout the period. Sunday night looks to stay in the mid 60s to
lower 70s, but by Thursday night, lows will be in the low 60s.

The hot and dry air will lower RH values into the mid to lower teens
Monday, with the Colorado counties being the driest. These dry
conditions do elevate fire weather concerns. We could see a brief
gust or two around 20-25 MPH, but the winds do not look to be overly
strong.

As the high pressure system is forced back west, our chances of
precipitation increase. Starting Monday afternoon, we could see
diurnal shortwaves ejecting off the Rockies and forcing showers and
storms over the Tri-State area. Tuesday evening looks to be the best
chance at seeing precipitation with PoPs around 50-60 for the entire
area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light and somewhat
variable winds can be expected through the TAF period. Tonight
the LLJ moves over the forecast area. This may lead to LLWS at
both sites.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

With forecasted high temperatures set to range from 100F to 105F
area-wide from Friday, July 12th through Monday, July 15th
there is the potential for some locales to come with a few
degrees of the record highs for each day. Listed below are the
records for each day:

                   Friday    Saturday     Sunday      Monday

                    7/12        7/13       7/14        7/15
                 ______________________________________________

Goodland KS      106F/1954   108F/1934   107F/1934   106F/1925

Burlington CO    106F/1954+  103F/1934   105F/1925   103F/2000+

Hill City KS     113F/1939   115F/1934   113F/1934   113F/1934

McCook NE        110F/1939   108F/1954+  109F/1934   112F/1925

Colby KS         106F/1995   111F/1934   109F/1934   108F/1925

Yuma CO          106F/1954   108F/1954   105F/2010   102F/2006+

Tribune KS       106F/2008   107F/1934   107F/1934   108F/2000



A (+) denotes a record in multiple years.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JTL
CLIMATE...